Chapter 116. Availability Heuristic

algorithm

a logical, step-by-step approach to solving a problem or making a decision; guarantees a solution, as long as all the steps are followed properly

heuristic

a fast, efficient approach to solving a problem or making a decision; prone to errors; does not guarantee a solution

availability heuristic

mental shortcut that uses the memory availability of particular events as a way of estimating the frequency with which those events occur

memory

the process of remembering information that has been learned

Availability Heuristic

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Learning Objectives:

Contrast heuristics and algorithms as tools for problem solving.

Describe the availability heuristic as an obstacle to effective reasoning.

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Practice: Estimating Risks

Drag each risk factor to the appropriate location to indicate its rank as a cause of death. Then select the CHECK ANSWER button to check your answer. Repeat until you have the correct order.

These images represent five causes of death. From most likely to least likely, in what order do these risk factors kill U.S. citizens in a typical year?

Try to rank the risk factors again.

Select the NEXT button and move to the Review.

Cars

Terrorists

Guns

Flu

Food

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Review

Select the NEXT button to continue with the Review.

1. The ranking exercise you just completed was intended to demonstrate the power of heuristics. Heuristics are mental shortcuts that people use in problem solving and decision making—strategies that are fast and efficient, but do not guarantee the correct solution.

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Review

Select the NEXT button to continue with the Review.

2. Heuristics are usually faster than algorithms (methodical, step-by-step procedures for solving a problem), but this speed comes at a cost: Heuristics often lead people to make errors in judgment.

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Review

Select the NEXT button to continue with the Review.

The image includes a large circle that represents events that happen in the world. Within this large circle is a medium circle that represents the events reported in the media. Within this medium circle is a small circle that represents events that caught my attention and I now can remember.

3. The availability heuristic is a mental shortcut people use to judge the frequency of items or events. Those that are more readily available in memory are judged as having occurred more frequently.

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Review

Select the NEXT button to continue with the Review.

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4. For example, instances in which a child has been kidnapped and murdered come to mind easily because of vivid media reports of such events. This leads people to estimate that childhood deaths from kidnapping are more common than childhood deaths from choking on small objects, when in fact the opposite is true.

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Review

Select the NEXT button to continue with the Review.

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5. At the beginning of this activity, you ranked five different factors as causes of death in the United States. When judging the likely risk of dying from various causes, we are influenced by memorable news reports of terrorist attacks or sensational murders that involve guns. The availability heuristic leads most people to overestimate the likelihood of dying from those causes and underestimate the frequency of death from more ordinary risks such as auto accidents, food poisoning, or influenza.

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Quiz 1

For each statement, select one of the buttons to indicate whether the procedure represents an Algorithm or Heuristic. When responses have been chosen for all the statements, select the CHECK ANSWER button.

Select the NEXT button and move to Quiz 2.

Try to respond to the statements again.

Algorithm

Heuristic

When Rosa finds a “bug” in her computer programs, she follows a systematic set of rules to isolate the error and fix it.

Rachel prides herself on being able to make “snap judgments” based on a quick impression of the situation.

When Riley is deciding whether to follow a professor’s advice, he relies on the reputation of the professor.

Reuben carefully follows the approved procedure for bookkeeping at his business because he can’t afford to make a financial error.

Riya realizes that her fourth-grade students use calculators and smartphones to do their math homework, but she still teaches them the process for doing long division by hand.

Rafael uses common sense to solve a problem with his car rather than consulting the checklist in the owner’s manual.

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Quiz 2

Select one of the buttons to answer the question. Then, select the CHECK ANSWER button.

You were able to predict how most people would respond to this question. Most people would guess (incorrectly) that there are more English words that begin with the letter R. This illustrates the availability heuristic, because words beginning with R come to mind more easily than words with R in the third position. In fact, many more English words have R as the third letter than the first letter. Select the NEXT button and move to the Conclusion.

Most people would guess (incorrectly) that there are more English words that begin with the letter R. This illustrates the availability heuristic, because words beginning with R come to mind more easily than words with R in the third position. In fact, many more English words have R as the third letter than the first letter. Select the NEXT button and move to the Conclusion.

Based on what you know about the availability heuristic, how would most people answer the following question?

Are there more words in the English language that begin with the letter R or that have the letter R in the third position?

More words have R as the first letter.

More words have R as the third letter.

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Congratulations!

You have completed the activity Availability Heuristic.