Economic Conditions in an Election Year Predict Presidential Votes
Notes: Vote share predicted using growth in disposable income in year of election, inflation in year of election, and a measure of how long the incumbent party has been in office.
Actual vote share is the share of the two-party vote captured by the party of the presidential incumbent.
Notes: Vote share predicted using growth in disposable income in year of election, inflation in year of election, and a measure of how long the incumbent party has been in office.
Actual vote share is the share of the two-party vote captured by the party of the presidential incumbent.