39. 1970 Military Draft. Is there evidence that the 1970 military draft, conducted at the height of the Vietnam War, was not truly random? For this exercise, birth dates were ranked from 1 (for the first date drawn) to 366 (the last date drawn). In 1970, only those young men with birth date rankings up to 195 were eventually drafted. Because 195 of the 366 dates were “drafted,” the overall proportion of “drafted dates” is . Assuming the draft was truly random, we do not expect the proportion of “drafted dates” to vary significantly from month to month. In other words, the proportion of “drafted dates” should be about the same for each of the 12 months. We therefore define a multinomial random variable drafted, with the months as categories. The monthly counts of dates not drafted and drafted are provided here. (For example, for April, 12 dates out of 30 were chosen to be drafted.) Test whether the proportions of “drafted dates” are equal for all months, using level of significance . 1970draft
Month | Dates not drafted | Dates drafted | All |
---|---|---|---|
Jan. | 17 | 14 | 31 |
Feb. | 16 | 13 | 29 |
Mar. | 21 | 10 | 31 |
Apr. | 18 | 12 | 30 |
May | 17 | 14 | 31 |
June | 16 | 14 | 30 |
July | 13 | 18 | 31 |
Aug. | 12 | 19 | 31 |
Sept. | 11 | 19 | 30 |
Oct. | 17 | 14 | 31 |
Nov. | 8 | 22 | 30 |
Dec. | 5 | 26 | 31 |
All | 171 | 195 | 366 |
11.2.39
. : Not all the proportions in are equal. Reject if -value . . -value . Since -value , we reject . There is evidence that the population proportion of “drafted dates” is not equal for all months.