What are the projections for future warming and what are the potential effects of future warming?
Interactive Study Guide
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Guiding Question 26.4
What are the projections for future warming, and what are the potential effects of future warming?
Why You Should Care
Predictions of future climate change hinge on knowing future levels of the greenhouse gases and computer models that accurately predict climate. Current IPCC scenarios about climate change are broken up by different assumptions about the amount of greenhouse gases the world emits each year and how quickly those levels decrease. Best-case scenarios predict a stable climate and minimal additional environmental impacts if the world quickly returns to emission levels from the year 2000. The worst-case scenario predicts a 3–4 degrees C increase by 2050 if the world continues the recent rate of increasing emissions and a slow transition to renewable energy sources.
Increased temperatures could lead to higher agricultural yields, but only up to a certain temperature because then drought would start decreasing yields. All warming scenarios lead to less ice and thus higher sea levels, which is a serious issue for the nearly 70% of the world’s population that lives on coastal plains.
Test Your Vocabulary
Choose the correct term for each of the following definitions:
Term
Definition
Efforts intended to minimize the extent or impact of a problem such as climate change.
Acting in a way that leaves a safety margin when the data are uncertain or severe consequences are possible.
Governmental fees imposed on activities that release CO2 into the atmosphere, usually on fossil fuel use.
Efforts intended to help deal with a problem that exists, such as climate change.
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1.
As the climate warms, what species responses do scientists see?
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2.
Which of the following is NOT evidence of the effects of climate warming on species?
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3.
Why is climate change having such widespread effects on forest composition and biodiversity?
Every species in a forest has unique needs, and climate change affects each species differently. Warming may force plants and trees to migrate to cooler areas. Other plants and trees will need to move into the forest to replace the moving species, and that may happen quickly or slowly. Quick shifts in species will disrupt food webs and food pyramids with widespread effects.
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Of the listed mitigation strategies, which stores more carbon (rather than minimizes the release of more carbon)?
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5.
Which of these mitigation strategies minimize carbon release by switching to alternatives?
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6.
These mitigation strategies are not without cost, but if 8 of the 15 are employed, what concentration would the atmosphere stabilize at by 2050?
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7.
Why do the IPCC scenarios assume that greater cooperation and sharing is a key to slowing projected warming?
Greater cooperation and sharing of technology and strategies leads to a faster application of solutions and affects more countries. This would be key in decreasing greenhouse gas levels as quickly as possible. Less cooperation and sharing leads to a slower implementation of solutions, and more greenhouse gases are released in the meantime.
