Thinking Like a Historian: Personal Computing: A Technological Revolution

1. Moore’s law, 1965. In 1965, the electronics engineer Gordon Moore calculated that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubled roughly every two years, meaning that the power of computers was increasing at that rate.

   The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year. Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue, if not increase. … That means by 1975, the number of components per integrated circuit for minimum cost will be 65,000.

   I believe that such a large circuit can be built on a single wafer.

2. Scene from 2001: A Space Odyssey, 1968. In this scene from an acclaimed science fiction film, a space station’s computer system, named HAL, defends itself against an astronaut who is determined to shut down the computer.

   Dave Bowman: Hello, HAL. Do you read me, HAL?

   HAL: Affirmative, Dave. I read you.

   DB: Open the pod bay doors, HAL.

   HAL: I’m sorry, Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that.

   DB: What’s the problem?

   HAL: I think you know what the problem is just as well as I do.

   DB: What are you talking about, HAL?

   HAL: This mission is too important for me to allow you to jeopardize it.

   DB: I don’t know what you’re talking about, HAL.

   HAL: I know that you and Frank were planning to disconnect me, and I’m afraid that’s something I cannot allow to happen.

   DB: Where the hell did you get that idea, HAL?

   HAL: Dave, although you took very thorough precautions in the pod against my hearing you, I could see your lips move.

   DB: Alright, HAL. I’ll go in through the emergency airlock.

   HAL: Without your space helmet, Dave? You’re going to find that rather difficult.

   DB: HAL, I won’t argue with you anymore! Open the door!

   HAL: Dave, this conversation can serve no purpose anymore. Goodbye.

3. Neil Ardley, World of Tomorrow: School, Work, and Play, 1981. In this book written for teenagers, Neil Ardley speculated about the future of computers.

   Imagine you are living in the future, and are doing a project on Halley’s comet. It’s quite some time since it last appeared in 1986, and you want to find out when it will again be seen from Earth. You also want to know the results of a space mission to the comet, and find out what the comet is made of.

   In the days when the last comet appeared, you would have had to look up Halley’s comet in an encyclopedia or a book on astronomy. If you didn’t possess these books, you would have gone to the library to get the information. …

   People still collect books as valuable antiques or for a hobby, but you get virtually all the information you need from the viewscreen of your home computer. The computer is linked to a library — not a library of books but an electronic library where information on every subject is stored in computer memory banks. …

   Computers will make the world of tomorrow a much safer place. They will do away with cash, so that you need no longer fear being attacked for your money. In addition, you need not worry that your home will be burgled or your car stolen. The computers in your home and car will guard them, allowing only yourself to enter or someone with your permission.

4. Scene from Terminator, 1984. A national defense computer network called Skynet decides to exterminate humanity in the film Terminator.

   Reese: There was a war. A few years from now. Nuclear war. The whole thing. All this — [His gesture includes the car, the city, the world.] — everything is gone. Just gone. There were survivors. Here. There. Nobody knew who started it. (pause) It was the machines.

   Sarah: I don’t understand. …

   Reese: Defense network computer. New. Powerful. Hooked into everything. Trusted to run it all. They say it got smart … a new order of intelligence. Then it saw all people as a threat, not just the ones on the other side. Decided our fate in a microsecond … extermination.

5. Interview with Steve Jobs, February 1, 1985. Apple founder Steve Jobs, one of the pioneers of the personal computer, discusses the future of computers and computer networks.

   Question: Why should a person buy a computer?

   Steve Jobs: There are different answers for different people. In business, that question is easy to answer: You can really prepare documents much faster and at a higher quality level, and you can do many things to increase office productivity. A computer frees people from much of the menial work. … Remember computers are tools. Tools help us do our work better. In education, computers are the first thing to come along since books that will sit there and interact with you endlessly, without judgment. …

   Question: What will change?

   Steve Jobs: The most compelling reason for most people to buy a computer for the home [in the future] will be to link it into a nationwide communications network. We’re just in the beginning stages of what will be a truly remarkable breakthrough for most people — as remarkable as the telephone.

6. Percentage of Americans using the Internet.