An experiment is a study in which we actually do something to people, animals, or objects in order to observe the response. Here is the basic vocabulary of experiments.

Because the purpose of an experiment is to reveal the response of one variable to changes in one or more other variables, the distinction between explanatory and response variables is important. The explanatory variables in an experiment are often called factorsfactors. Many experiments study the joint effects of several factors. In such an experiment, each treatment is formed by combining a specific value (often called a levellevel of a factor) of each of the factors.

172

Example 3.8 illustrates the big advantage of experiments over observational studies. In principle, experiments can give good evidence for causation. In an experiment, we study the specific factors we are interested in while controlling the effects of lurking variables. All the students in the Tennessee STAR program followed the usual curriculum at their schools. Because students were assigned to different class types within their schools, school resources and family backgrounds were not confounded with class type. The only systematic difference was the type of class. When students from the small classes did better than those in the other two types, we can be confident that class size made the difference.

173

Example 3.9 shows how experiments allow us to study the combined effects of more than one factor. The interaction of several factors can produce effects that cannot be predicted from looking at the effects of each factor alone. Perhaps longer commercials increase interest in a product, and more commercials also increase interest, but if we both make a commercial longer and show it more often, viewers get annoyed and their interest in the product drops. The two-factor experiment in Example 3.9 will help us find out.

Comparative experiments

Laboratory experiments in science and engineering often have a simple design with only a single treatment, which is applied to all experimental units. The design of such an experiment can be outlined as

Treatment → Observe response

174

For example, we may subject a beam to a load (treatment) and measure its deflection (observation). We rely on the controlled environment of the laboratory to protect us from lurking variables. When experiments are conducted outside the laboratory or with living subjects, such simple designs often yield invalid data. That is, we cannot tell whether the response was due to the treatment or to lurking variables.

The test anxiety experiment of Example 3.10 was poorly designed to evaluate the effect of the writing exercise. Perhaps exam scores would have increased on the second exam because the students became more familiar with the exam style of this particular instructor even without the writing exercise. Another possible explanation is that people typically respond to the personal attention that the students received by the person who explained how to write about their feelings regarding the exam.

In medical settings, this phenomenon is called the placebo effectplacebo effect. In medicine, a placebo is a dummy treatment, such as a sugar pill. People respond favorably to personal attention or to any treatment that they hope will help them. On the other hand, the writing exercise may have been very effective in improving exam scores. For this experiment, we don’t know whether the change was due to writing the essay, to the personal contacts with the study personnel, or to greater familiarity with the way the instructor designed exams.

The test anxiety experiment gave inconclusive results because the effect of writing the essay was confounded with other factors that could have had an effect on exam scores. The best way to avoid confounding is to do a comparative experimentcomparative experiment. Think about a study in which some students performed the writing exercise and others did not. A comparison of the exam scores of these two groups of students would provide an evaluation of the effect of the writing exercise.

In medical settings, it is standard practice to randomly assign patients either to a control groupcontrol group or a treatment group. All patients are treated the same in every way except that the treatment group receives the product that is beingtreatment group evaluated.

Uncontrolled experiments (that is, experiments that don’t include a control group) in medicine and the behavioral sciences can be dominated by such influences as the details of the experimental arrangement, the selection of subjects, and the placebo effect. The result is often bias.

175

An uncontrolled study of a new medical therapy, for example, is biased in favor of finding the treatment effective because of the placebo effect. Uncontrolled studies in medicine give new therapies a much higher success rate than proper comparative experiments do. Well-designed experiments usually compare several treatments.

Randomization

The design of an experimentexperimental design first describes the response variable or variables, the factors (explanatory variables), and the treatments, with comparison as the leading principle. Figure 3.2 (page 173) illustrates this aspect of the design of a study of response to advertising. The second aspect of experimental design is how the experimental units are assigned to the treatments. Comparison of the effects of several treatments is valid only when all treatments are applied to similar groups of experimental units. If one corn variety is planted on more fertile ground or if one cancer drug is given to more seriously ill patients, comparisons among treatments are meaningless. If groups assigned to treatments are quite different in a comparative experiment, we should be concerned that our experiment will be biased. How can we assign experimental units to treatments in a way that is fair to all treatments?

Experimenters often attempt to match groups by elaborate balancing acts. Medical researchers, for example, try to match the patients in a “new drug” experimental group and a “standard drug” control group by age, sex, physical condition, smoker or not, and so on. Matchingmatching is helpful but not adequate—there are too many lurking variables that might affect the outcome. The experimenter is unable to measure some of these variables and will not think of others until after the experiment.

Some important variables, such as how advanced a cancer patient’s disease is, are so subjective that they can’t be measured. In other cases, an experimenter might unconsciously bias a study by assigning those patients who seemed the sickest to a promising new treatment in the (unconscious) hope that it would help them.

176

The statistician’s remedy is to rely on chance to make an assignment that does not depend on any characteristic of the experimental units and that does not rely on the judgment of the experimenter in any way. The use of chance can be combined with matching, but the simplest experimental design creates groups by chance alone. Here is an example.

The use of chance to divide experimental units into groups is called randomizationrandomization. The design in Figure 3.3 combines comparison and randomization to arrive at the simplest randomized comparative design. This “flowchart” outline presents all the essentials: randomization, the sizes of the groups and which treatment they receive, and the response variable. There are, as we will see later, statistical reasons for using treatment groups that are about equal in size.

177

Randomized comparative experiments

The logic behind the randomized comparative design in Figure 3.3 is as follows:

That “either-or” deserves more comment. We cannot say that all the difference in the satisfaction with the two smartphones is caused by the characteristics of the phones. There would be some difference even if both groups used the same phone. Some students would be more likely to be highly favorable of any new phone. Chance can assign more of these students to one of the phones so that there is a chance difference between the groups. We would not trust an experiment with just one subject in each group, for example. The results would depend too much on which phone got lucky and received the subject who was more likely to be highly satisfied. If we assign many students to each group, however, the effects of chance will average out. There will be little difference in the satisfaction between the two groups unless the phone characteristics causes a difference. “Use enough subjects to reduce chance variation” is the third big idea of statistical design of experiments.

How to randomize

The idea of randomization is to assign subjects to treatments by drawing names from a hat. In practice, experimenters use software to carry out randomization. For example, most statistical software can choose five out of a list of 10 at random. The list might contain the names of 10 human subjects to be randomly assigned to two groups. The five chosen form one group, and the five that remain form the second group. The Simple Random Sample applet on the text website makes it particularly easy to choose treatment groups at random.

When we randomize, we first give a labellabel to each in the collection of items to be randomized. The label could be the name of a subject in a clinical study or simply a numerical identification number. We then perform the randomization using software or a table of random numbers. To illustrate these methods, let’s randomize 10 subjects for a study that will compare a treatment with a placebo control. We will randomly select the five subjects for the treatment group, and the remaining subjects will receive the placebo. We start by labeling the subjects with the numbers 1 through 10.

178

Randomization using software

Here is an example of one way to do the randomization using Excel. We start with a spreadsheet that has 10 rows corresponding to 10 subjects to be randomized to treatment or placebo.

The basic idea is that we generate a uniform random variable for each subject. In Excel, we use the RAND() function for this step. Then we sort the spreadsheet by the column with the uniform numbers and select the first five labels to be the treatment group and the remaining labels to be the placebo controls.

This process is essentially the same as writing the labels on a deck of 10 cards. We then shuffle the cards and deal five cards to form the treatment group.

179

If you want to save the uniform numbers that you generated in your file, you should copy them to another column using the “paste values” option before you perform the sort. Note that we have added a column called Group to the spreadsheet, which gives the group to which each subject is assigned. With this variable included, we can now sort the file on ID and delete the column with the random numbers. The result is shown in Figure 3.4(d). The spreadsheet in this form can now be used as a template for entering data.

Randomization using random digits

You can randomize without software by using a table of random digits. Thinking about random digits helps you to understand randomization even if you will use software in practice. Table B at the back of the book is a table of random digits.

You can think of Table B as the result of asking an assistant (or a computer) to mix the digits 0 to 9 in a hat, draw one, then replace the digit drawn, mix again, draw a second digit, and so on. The assistant’s mixing and drawing save us the work of mixing and drawing when we need to randomize. Table B begins with the digits 19223950340575628713. To make the table easier to read, the digits appear in groups of five and in numbered rows. The groups and rows have no meaning—the table is just a long list of digits having Properties 1 and 2 described earlier.

180

Our goal is to use random digits for experimental randomization. We need the following facts about random digits, which are consequences of Properties 1 and 2:

When all experimental units are allocated at random among all treatments, as in Examples 3.12 and 3.13, the experimental design is completely randomizedcompletely randomized design. Completely randomized designs can compare any number of treatments. The treatments can be formed by levels of a single factor or by more than one factor.

The randomization is straightforward but very tedious to do by using random digits. We strongly recommend that you use software, such as Excel or the Simple Random Sample applet. Exercise 3.37 (page 187) shows how to use the applet to do the randomization for this example.

Cautions about experimentation

The logic of a randomized comparative experiment depends on our ability to treat all the experimental units identically in every way except for the actual treatments being compared. Good experiments, therefore, require careful attention to details. The ideal situation is where a study is double-blinddouble-blind—neither the subjects themselves nor the experimenters know which treatment any subject has received. The double-blind method avoids unconscious bias by, for example, a doctor who doesn’t think that “just a placebo” can benefit a patient.

182

Many—perhaps most—experiments have some weaknesses in detail. The environment of an experiment can influence the outcomes in unexpected ways. Although experiments are the gold standard for evidence of cause and effect, really convincing evidence usually requires that a number of studies in different places with different details produce similar results. Here are some brief examples of what can go wrong.

The most serious potential weakness of experiments is lack of realismlack of realism. The subjects or treatments or setting of an experiment may not realistically duplicate the conditions we really want to study. Here is an example.

Lack of realism can limit our ability to apply the conclusions of an experiment to the settings of greatest interest. Most experimenters want to generalize their conclusions to some setting wider than that of the actual experiment. Statistical analysis of an experiment cannot tell us how far the results will generalize to other settings. Nonetheless, the randomized comparative experiment, because of its ability to give convincing evidence for causation, is one of the most important ideas in statistics.

Matched pairs designs

Completely randomized designs are the simplest statistical designs for experiments. They illustrate clearly the principles of control, randomization, and repetition. However, completely randomized designs are often inferior to more elaborate statistical designs. In particular, matching the subjects in various ways can produce more precise results than simple randomization.

183

The simplest use of matching is a matched pairs designmatched pairs design, which compares just two treatments. The subjects are matched in pairs. For example, an experiment to compare two advertisements for the same product might use pairs of subjects with the same age, sex, and income. The idea is that matched subjects are more similar than unmatched subjects so that comparing responses within a number of pairs is more efficient than comparing the responses of groups of randomly assigned subjects. Randomization remains important: which one of a matched pair sees the first ad is decided at random. One common variation of the matched pairs design imposes both treatments on the same subjects so that each subject serves as his or her own control. Here is an example.

The completely randomized design uses chance to decide which subjects will evaluate each smartphone prototype. The matched pairs design uses chance to decide which 20 subjects will evaluate Phone 1 first. The other 20 will evaluate Phone 2 first. This experiment is called a cross-overcross-over experiment. Situations where there are more than two treatments and all subjects receive all treatments can also be performed in this way.

Block designs

The matched pairs design of Example 3.17 uses the principles of comparison of treatments, randomization, and repetition on several experimental units. However, the randomization is not complete (all subjects randomly assigned to treatment groups) but is restricted to assigning the order of the treatments for each subject. Block designs extend the use of “similar subjects” from pairs to larger groups.

184

Block designs can have blocks of any size. A block design combines the idea of creating equivalent treatment groups by matching with the principle of forming treatment groups at random. Blocks are another form of control. They control the effects of some outside variables by bringing those variables into the experiment to form the blocks. Here are some typical examples of block designs.

185

Blocks allow us to draw separate conclusions about each block, for example, about men and women in the cancer study in Example 3.18. Blocking also allows more precise overall conclusions because the systematic differences between men and women can be removed when we study the overall effects of the three therapies. The idea of blocking is an important additional principle of statistical design of experiments. A wise experimenter will form blocks based on the most important unavoidable sources of variability among the experimental units. Randomization will then average out the effects of the remaining variation and allow an unbiased comparison of the treatments.