For Exercises 8.1 and 8.2, see page 485; for Exercises 8.3 and 8.4, see page 489; for Exercises 8.5 through 8.8, see pages 493–494; for Exercise 8.9, see page 494; for Exercises 8.10 and 8.11, see page 498; and for Exercises 8.12 and 8.13, see page 500.
8.14 How did you use your cell phone? A Pew Internet poll asked cell phone owners about how they used their cell phones. One question asked whether or not during the past 30 days they had used their phone while in a store to call a friend or family member for advice about a purchase they were considering. The poll surveyed 1003 adults living in the United States by telephone. Of these, 462 responded that they had used their cell phone while in a store within the last 30 days to call a friend or family member for advice about a purchase they were considering.7
(a) Identify the sample size and the count.
(b) Calculate the sample proportion.
(c) Explain the relationship between the population proportion and the sample proportion.
8.15 Do you eat breakfast? A random sample of 300 students from your college is asked if they regularly eat breakfast. One hundred and nine students responded that they did eat breakfast regularly.
(a) Identify the sample size and the count.
(b) Calculate the sample proportion.
(c) Explain the relationship between the population proportion and the sample proportion.
8.16 Would you recommend the service to a friend? An automobile dealership asks all its customers who used its service department in a given two-week period if they would recommend the service to a friend. A total of 250 customers used the service during the two-week period, and 210 said that they would recommend the service to a friend.
(a) Identify the sample size and the count.
(b) Calculate the sample proportion.
(c) Explain the relationship between the population proportion and the sample proportion.
8.17 How did you use your cell phone? Refer to Exercise 8.14.
(a) Report the sample proportion, the standard error of the sample proportion, and the margin of error for 95% confidence.
(b) Are the guidelines for when to use the large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion satisfied in this setting? Explain your answer.
(c) Find the 95% large-sample confidence interval for the population proportion.
(d) Write a short statement explaining the meaning of your confidence interval.
8.18 Do you eat breakfast? Refer to Exercise 8.15.
(a) Report the sample proportion, the standard error of the sample proportion, and the margin of error for 95% confidence.
(b) Are the guidelines for when to use the large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion satisfied in this setting? Explain your answer.
(c) Find the 95% large-sample confidence interval for the population proportion.
(d) Write a short statement explaining the meaning of your confidence interval.
8.19 Would you recommend the service to a friend? Refer to Exercise 8.16.
(a) Report the sample proportion, the standard error of the sample proportion, and the margin of error for 95% confidence.
(b) Are the guidelines for when to use the large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion satisfied in this setting? Explain your answer.
(c) Find the 95% large-sample confidence interval for the population proportion.
(d) Write a short statement explaining the meaning of you confidence interval.
8.20 Whole grain versus regular grain? A study of young children was designed to increase their intake of whole-grain, rather than regular-grain, snacks. At the end of the study, the 86 children who participated in the study were presented with a choice between a regular-grain snack and a whole-grain alternative. The whole-grain alternative was chosen by 48 children. You want to examine the possibility that the children are equally likely to choose each type of snack.
(a) Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses for this setting.
(b) Are the guidelines for using the large-sample significance test satisfied for testing this null hypothesis? Explain your answer.
(c) Perform the significance test and summarize your results in a short paragraph.
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8.21 Find the sample size. You are planning a survey similar to the one about cell phone use described in Exercise 8.14. You will report your results with a large-sample confidence interval. How large a sample do you need to be sure that the margin of error will not be greater than 0.05? Show your work.
8.22 What’s wrong? Explain what is wrong with each of the following:
(a) An approximate 90% confidence interval for an unknown proportion p is plus or minus its standard error.
(b) You can use a significance test to evaluate the hypothesis H0: versus the one-sided alternative.
(c) The large-sample significance test for a population proportion is based on a t statistic.
8.23 What’s wrong? Explain what is wrong with each of the following:
(a) A student project used a confidence interval to describe the results in a final report. The confidence level was 115%.
(b) The margin of error for a confidence interval used for an opinion poll takes into account the fact that people who did not answer the poll questions may have had different responses from those who did answer the questions.
(c) If the P-value for a significance test is 0.50, we can conclude that the null hypothesis has a 50% chance of being true.
8.24 Draw some pictures. Consider the binomial setting with n = 800 and p = 0.3.
(a) The sample proportion will have a distribution that is approximately Normal. Give the mean and the standard deviation of this Normal distribution.
(b) Draw a sketch of this Normal distribution. Mark the location of the mean.
(c) Find a value p* for which the probability is 95% that will be between ±p*. Mark these two values on your sketch.
8.25 Country food and Inuits. Country food includes seals, caribou, whales, ducks, fish, and berries and is an important part of the diet of the aboriginal people called Inuits who inhabit Inuit Nunangat, the northern region of what is now called Canada. A survey of Inuits in Inuit Nunangat reported that 3274 out of 5000 respondents said that at least half of the meat and fish that they eat is country food.8 Find the sample proportion and a 95% confidence interval for the population proportion of Inuits whose meat and fish consumption consists of at least half country food.
8.26 Soft drink consumption in New Zealand. A survey commissioned by the Southern Cross Healthcare Group reported that 16% of New Zealanders consume five or more servings of soft drinks per week. The data were obtained by an online survey of 2006 randomly selected New Zealanders over 15 years of age.9
(a) What number of survey respondents reported that they consume five or more servings of soft drinks per week? You will need to round your answer. Why?
(b) Find a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of New Zealanders who report that they consume five or more servings of soft drinks per week.
(c) Convert the estimate and your confidence interval to percents.
(d) Discuss reasons why the estimate might be biased.
8.27 Violent video games. A survey of 1050 parents who have a child under the age of 18 living at home asked about their opinions regarding violent video games. A report describing the results of the survey stated that 89% of parents say that violence in today’s video games is a problem.10
(a) What number of survey respondents reported that they thought that violence in today’s video games is a problem? You will need to round your answer. Why?
(b) Find a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of parents who think that violence in today’s video games is a problem.
(c) Convert the estimate and your confidence interval to percents.
(d) Discuss reasons why the estimate might be biased.
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8.28 Bullying. Refer to the previous exercise. The survey also reported that 93% of the parents surveyed said that bullying contributes to violence in the United States. Answer the questions in the previous exercise for this item on the survey.
8.29 and the Normal distribution. Consider the binomial setting with n = 40. You are testing the null hypothesis that p = 0.4 versus the two-sided alternative with a 5% chance of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true.
(a) Find the values of the sample proportion that will lead to rejection of the null hypothesis.
(b) Repeat part (a) assuming a sample size of n = 80.
(c) Make a sketch illustrating what you have found in parts (a) and (b). What does your sketch show about the effect of the sample size in this setting?
8.30 Students doing community service. In a sample of 159,949 first-year college students, the National Survey of Student Engagement reported that 39% participated in community service or volunteer work.11
(a) Find the margin of error for 99% confidence.
(b) Here are some facts from the report that summarizes the survey. The students were from 617 four-year colleges and universities. The response rate was 36%. Institutions paid a participation fee of between $1800 and $7800 based on the size of their undergraduate enrollment. Discuss these facts as possible sources of error in this study. How do you think these errors would compare with the margin of error that you calculated in part (a)?
8.31 Plans to study abroad. The survey described in the previous exercise also asked about items related to academics. In response to one of these questions, 42% of first-year students reported that they plan to study abroad.
(a) Based on the information available, how many students plan to study abroad?
(b) Give a 99% confidence interval for the population proportion of first-year college students who plan to study abroad.
8.32 Student credit cards. In a survey of 1430 undergraduate students, 1087 reported that they had one or more credit cards.12 Give a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all college students who have at least one credit card.
8.33 How many credit cards? The summary of the survey described in the previous exercise reported that 43% of undergraduates had four or more credit cards. Give a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of all college students who have four or more credit cards.
8.34 How would the confidence interval change? Refer to Exercise 8.33.
(a) Would a 80% confidence interval be wider or narrower than the one that you found in Exercise 8.33? Verify your answer by computing the interval.
(b) Would a 98% confidence interval be wider or narrower than the one that you found in that exercise? Verify your results by computing the interval.
8.35 Do students report Internet sources? The National Survey of Student Engagement found that 87% of students report that their peers at least “sometimes” copy information from the Internet in their papers without reporting the source.13 Assume that the sample size is 430,000.
(a) Find the margin of error for 99% confidence.
(b) Here are some items from the report that summarizes the survey. More than 430,000 students from 730 four-year colleges and universities participated. The average response rate was 43% and ranged from 15% to 89%. Institutions pay a participation fee of between $3000 and $7500 based on the size of their undergraduate enrollment. Discuss these facts as possible sources of error in this study. How do you think these errors would compare with the error that you calculated in part (a)?
8.36 Can we use the z test? In each of the following cases, state whether or not the Normal approximation to the binomial should be used for a significance test on the population proportion p. Explain your answers.
(a) n = 30 and H0: p = 0.3.
(b) n = 60 and H0: p = 0.2.
(c) n = 100 and H0: p = 0.12.
(d) n = 150 and H0: p = 0.04.
8.37 Long sermons. The National Congregations Study collected data in a one-hour interview with a key informant—that is, a minister, priest, rabbi, or other staff person or leader.14 One question concerned the length of the typical sermon. For this question, 390 out of 1191 congregations reported that the typical sermon lasted more than 30 minutes.
(a) Use the large-sample inference procedures to estimate the true proportion for this question with a 95% confidence interval.
(b) The respondents to this question were not asked to use a stopwatch to record the lengths of a random sample of sermons at their congregations. They responded based on their impressions of the sermons. Do you think that ministers, priests, rabbis, or other staff persons or leaders might perceive sermon lengths differently from the people listening to the sermons? Discuss how your ideas would influence your interpretation of the results of this study.
504
8.38 Instant versus fresh-brewed coffee. A matched pairs experiment compares the taste of instant with fresh-brewed coffee. Each subject tastes two unmarked cups of coffee, one of each type, in random order and states which he or she prefers. Of the 60 subjects who participate in the study, 21 prefer the instant coffee. Let p be the probability that a randomly chosen subject prefers fresh-brewed coffee to instant coffee. (In practical terms, p is the proportion of the population who prefer fresh-brewed coffee.)
(a) Test the claim that a majority of people prefer the taste of fresh-brewed coffee. Report the large-sample z statistic and its P-value.
(b) Draw a sketch of a standard Normal curve and mark the location of your z statistic. Shade the appropriate area that corresponds to the P-value.
(c) Is your result significant at the 5% level? What is your practical conclusion?
8.39 Tossing a coin 10,000 times! The South African mathematician John Kerrich, while a prisoner of war during World War II, tossed a coin 10,000 times and obtained 5067 heads.
(a) Is this significant evidence at the 5% level that the probability that Kerrich’s coin comes up heads is not 0.5? Use a sketch of the standard Normal distribution to illustrate the P-value.
(b) Use a 95% confidence interval to find the range of probabilities of heads that would not be rejected at the 5% level.
8.40 Is there interest in a new product? One of your employees has suggested that your company develop a new product. You decide to take a random sample of your customers and ask whether or not there is interest in the new product. The response is on a 1 to 5 scale with 1 indicating “definitely would not purchase”; 2, “probably would not purchase”; 3, “not sure”; 4, “probably would purchase”; and 5, “definitely would purchase.” For an initial analysis, you will record the responses 1, 2, and 3 as No and 4 and 5 as Yes. What sample size would you use if you wanted the 95% margin of error to be 0.25 or less?
8.41 More information is needed. Refer to the previous exercise. Suppose that after reviewing the results of the previous survey, you proceeded with preliminary development of the product. Now you are at the stage where you need to decide whether or not to make a major investment to produce and market it. You will use another random sample of your customers, but now you want the margin of error to be smaller. What sample size would you use if you wanted the 95% margin of error to be 0.015 or less?
8.42 Sample size needed for an evaluation. You are planning an evaluation of a semester-long alcohol awareness campaign at your college. Previous evaluations indicate that about 20% of the students surveyed will respond Yes to the question “Did the campaign alter your behavior toward alcohol consumption?” How large a sample of students should you take if you want the margin of error for 95% confidence to be about 0.07?
8.43 Sample size needed for an evaluation, continued. The evaluation in the previous exercise will also have questions that have not been asked before, so you do not have previous information about the possible value of p. Repeat the preceding calculation for the following values of p*: 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9. Summarize the results in a table and graphically. What sample size will you use?
8.44 Are the customers dissatisfied? An automobile manufacturer would like to know what proportion of its customers are dissatisfied with the service received from their local dealer. The customer relations department will survey a random sample of customers and compute a 95% confidence interval for the proportion who are dissatisfied. From past studies, it believes that this proportion will be about 0.25. Find the sample size needed if the margin of error of the confidence interval is to be no more than 0.035.
8.45 Sample size for coffee. Refer to Exercise 8.38 where we analyzed data from a matched pairs study that compared preferences for instant versus fresh-brewed coffee. Suppose that you want to design a similar study. The null hypothesis is that instant and fresh-brewed are equally likely to be preferred and the alternative is two-sided. You will use α = 0.05. What is the sample size needed to detect a preference of 60% for fresh-brewed with 0.80 probability?
8.46 Sample size for tossing a coin. Refer to Exercise 8.39 where we analyzed the 10,000 coin tosses made by John Kerrich. Suppose that you want to design a study that would test the hypothesis that a coin is fair versus the alternative that the probability of a head is 0.51. Using a two-sided test with α = 0.05. what sample size would be needed to have 0.80 power to detect this alternative?