SECTION 6.4 EXERCISES

Question 6.110

6.110 Make a recommendation. Your manager has asked you to review a research proposal that includes a section on sample size justification. A careful reading of this section indicates that the power is 18% for detecting an effect that would be considered important. Write a short report for your manager explaining what this means and make a recommendation on whether or not this study should be run.

Question 6.111

6.111 Explain power and sample size. Two studies are identical in all respects except for the sample sizes. Consider the power versus a particular sample size. Will the study with the larger sample size have more power or less power than the one with the smaller sample size? Explain your answer in terms that could be understood by someone with very little knowledge of statistics.

Question 6.112

6.112 Power for a different alternative. The power for a two-sided test of the null hypothesis μ = 0 versus the alternative μ = 6 is 0.83. What is the power versus the alternative μ = −6? Explain your answer.

Question 6.113

6.113 More on the power for a different alternative. A one-sided test of the null hypothesis μ = 20 versus the alternative μ = 30 has power equal to 0.73. Will the power for the alternative μ = 35 be higher or lower than 0.73? Draw a picture and use this to explain your answer.

Question 6.114

image 6.114 Effect of changing the alternative μ on power. The Statistical Power applet illustrates the power calculation similar to that in Figure 6.16 (page 393). Open the applet and keep the default settings for the null (μ = 0) and the alternative (μ > 0) hypotheses, the sample size (n = 10), the standard deviation (σ = 1), and the significance level (α = 0.05). In the “alt μ =” box, enter the value 1. What is the power? Repeat for alternative μ equal to 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9. Make a table giving μ and the power. What do you conclude?

401

Question 6.115

image 6.115 Other changes and the effect on power. Refer to the previous exercise. For each of the following changes, explain what happens to the power for each alternative μ in the table.

  1. (a) Change to the two-sided alternative.

  2. (b) Decrease σ to 0.5.

  3. (c) Increase n from 10 to 30.

Question 6.116

image 6.116 Power of the random north–south distribution of trees test. In Exercise 6.70 (page 382), you performed a two-sided significance test of the null hypothesis that the average north–south location of the longleaf pine trees sampled in the Wade Tract was μ = 100. There were 584 trees in the sample and the standard deviation was assumed to be 58. The sample mean in that analysis was . Use the Statistical Power applet to compute the power for the alternative μ = 99 using a two-sided test at the 5% level of significance.

Question 6.117

image 6.117 Power of the random east–west distribution of trees test. Refer to the previous exercise. Note that in the east–west direction, the average location was 113.8. Use the Statistical Power applet to find the power for the alternative μ = 110.

Question 6.118

image 6.118 Planning another test to compare consumption. Example 6.15 (page 372) gives a test of a hypothesis about the mean consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages at your university based on a sample of size n = 100. The hypotheses are

H0: μ = 286
Ha: μ ≠ 286

While the result was not statistically significant, it did provide some evidence that the mean was smaller than 286. Thus, you plan to recruit another sample of students from your university, but this time use a one-sided alternative. You were thinking of surveying n = 100 students but now wonder if this sample size gives adequate power to detect a decrease of 15 calories per day to μ = 271.

  1. (a) Given α = 0.05, for what values of z will you reject the null hypothesis?

  2. (b) Using σ = 155 and μ = 286, for what values of will you reject H0?

  3. (c) Using σ = 155 and μ = 271, what is the probability that will fall in the region defined in part (b)?

  4. (d) Will a sample size of n = 100 give you adequate power? Or do you need to find ways to increase the power? Explain your answer.

  5. (e) Use the Statistical Power applet or other statistical software to determine the sample size n that gives you power near 0.80.

Question 6.119

6.119 Planning the dining court survey. Exercise 6.38 (page 364) describes a survey to assess whether a newly designed dining court is viewed more favorably than the old design. The organizers are considering randomly surveying n = 100 student patrons but would like some statistical advice. The hypotheses are

H0: μ = 4

Ha: μ > 4

and they’ve decided they want adequate power to detect a mean of at least 4.25.

  1. (a) The organizers have no idea of σ. You suggest a small pilot study, which gives s = 1.73. Based on this result, you decide to use σ = 2. Provide an explanation for this choice to the organizers.

  2. (b) Given α = 0.05, for what values of will you reject H0?

  3. (c) Using μ = 4.25, what is the probability that will fall in the region defined in part (b)?

  4. (d) Will a sample size of n = 100 give you adequate power? Explain your answer.

  5. (e) Use the Statistical Power applet or statistical software to determine the sample size n that gives you power near 0.80.

Question 6.120

image 6.120 Choose the appropriate distribution. You must decide which of two discrete distributions a random variable X has. We will call the distributions p0 and p1. Here are the probabilities they assign to the values x of X:

x 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
p0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1
p1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

You have a single observation on X and wish to test

H0: p0 is correct

Ha: p1 is correct

One possible decision procedure is to reject H0 only if X ≤ 1.

  1. (a) Find the probability of a Type I error, that is, the probability that you reject H0 when p0 is the correct distribution.

  2. (b) Find the probability of a Type II error.

402

Question 6.121

6.121 Power of the mean SATM score test. Example 6.16 (page 374) gives a test of a hypothesis about the SATM scores of California high school students based on an SRS of 500 students. The hypotheses are

H0: μ = 485
Ha: μ > 485

Assume that the population standard deviation is σ = 100. The test rejects H0 at the 1% level of significance when z ≥ 2.326, where

Is this test sufficiently sensitive to usually detect an increase of 14 points in the population mean SATM score? Answer this question by calculating the power of the test to detect the alternative μ = 499.

Question 6.122

image 6.122 More on choosing the appropriate distribution. Refer to Exercise 6.120. Suppose that instead of a single observation X, you obtained two observations and use the decision rule to reject when .

  1. (a) Under this scenario, would you expect the probabilities of a Type I and Type II errors to increase, decrease, or stay at the same values of Exercise 6.120? Explain your answer.

  2. (b) Verify your answer to part (a) by computing the probabilities of a Type I and Type II error.

Question 6.123

6.123 Computer-assisted career guidance systems. A wide variety of computer-assisted career guidance systems have been developed over the last decade. These programs use factors such as student interests, aptitude, skills, personality, and family history to recommend a career path. For simplicity, suppose that a program recommends a high school graduate either to go to college or to join the workforce.

  1. (a) What are the two hypotheses and the two types of error that the program can make?

  2. (b) The program can be adjusted to decrease one error probability at the cost of an increase in the other error probability. Which error probability would you choose to make smaller, and why? (This is a matter of judgment. There is no single correct answer.)