Actual and Potential Output from 1989 to 2013This figure shows the performance of actual and potential output in the United States from 1989 to 2013. The orange line shows estimates, produced by the Congressional Budget Office, of U.S. potential output, and the blue line shows actual aggregate output. The purple-shaded years are periods in which actual aggregate output fell below potential output, while the green-shaded years are periods in which actual aggregate output exceeded potential output. As shown, significant shortfalls occurred in the recessions of the early 1990s and after 2000—particularly during the recession that began in 2007. Actual aggregate output was significantly above potential output in the boom of the late 1990s.
Source: Congressional Budget Office; Bureau of Economic Analysis.