17.6 SUMMARY

  1. Without banks, people would make the trade-off between liquidity and rate of return by holding a large fraction of their wealth in idle cash. Banks engage in maturity transformation, transforming short-term liabilities into long-term assets. Banking improvessavers’ welfare, allowing them immediate access to their funds (liquidity) as well as paying them interest on those funds.

  2. Shadow banks have grown greatly since 1980. Largely unregulated, they can pay savers a higher rate of return than depository banks. Like depository banks, shadow banks engage in maturity transformation, depending on short-term borrowing to operate and investing in long-term assets. Therefore, shadow banks can also be subject to bank runs.

  3. Although banking crises are rare, they typically inflict severe damage on the economy. They have two main sources: shared mistakes, such as investing in an asset bubble, and financial contagion. Contagion is spread through bank runs or via a vicious cycle of deleveraging. When unregulated, shadow banking is particularly vulnerable to contagion. In 2008, a financial panic hit the United States, arising from the combination of an asset bubble, a huge shadow banking sector, and a vicious cycle of deleveraging.

  4. Banking crises and financial panics are extremely rare in Canada. The United States, however, has suffered many such events, each followed by a severe downturn. The crisis of the 1930s spurred bank reform that prevented another crisis until 2008. Banking crises occur frequently throughout the world, mostly in small, poor countries. In the recent past, though, several advanced countries have had banking crises driven by real estate bubbles.

  5. Severe banking crises almost invariably lead to deep and long recessions, with unemployment remaining high for several years after the crisis began. There are three main reasons why banking crises are so damaging to the economy: they result in a credit crunch, the vicious circle of deleveraging leads to a debt overhang, and monetary policy is rendered ineffective as the economy falls into a liquidity trap. As a result, households and businesses are either unable or unwilling to spend, deepening the downturn.

  6. Unlike during the Great Depression, governments now step in to try to limit the damage from a banking crisis by acting as the lender of last resort and by guaranteeing the banks’ liabilities. Sometimes, but not always, governments nationalize the banks and then later reprivatize them. In an extreme crisis, the central bank may directly finance commercial transactions.

  7. Economic damage from the financial crisis of 2008 was large and prolonged. Canada’s economy, as well as the world’s two largest economies, the United States and the European Union, suffered severe downturns, shrinking more than 4%. These downturns were followed by relatively slow recoveries. The persistence of economic difficulties after 2008 led to fierce debates about appropriate policy responses between economists and policy-makers calling for more fiscal stimulus—more government spending and possibly tax cuts to promote spending and reduce unemployment—and those favouring fiscal austerity—spending cuts and possibly tax increases to reduce budget deficits.

  8. The U.S. banking regulatory system put in place during the 1930s has eroded due to the rise of shadow banking. The dependence on short-term financing (repo), the lack of regulation, and being outside the lender-of-last-resort system makes the shadow banking sector vulnerable to a banking panic.

  9. The crisis of 2008 began as the shadow banking sector suffered high losses when a real estate bubble in the United States burst. Despite the fact that governments and central banks around the world stepped in to fight the crisis and the downturn, most advanced countries experienced their worst slump since the 1930s. Persistently high unemployment is likely to endure for years to come.

  10. In the aftermath of the crisis, the U.S. Congress enacted the Dodd-Frank bill in the hope of preventing a replay of the crisis. The main elements of the new reform are stronger consumer protection, greater regulation of derivatives, regulation of shadow banking, and resolution authority for a variety of financial institutions. We have yet to see whether these changes will be adequate or whether they will also be adopted by other countries.

  11. In response to the housing market collapse in the United States, rising Canadian home prices, and the high level of household debt, the Canadian government, in several stages between 2008 and 2012, tightened regulations governing residential mortgages. These new rules include shortening the maximum amortization periods, reducing the percentage of house values that homeowners can borrow, and no longer insuring houses that are worth more than $1 million.