The collapse of the Soviet Union led to the establishment of the Russian Federation and fourteen other newly independent republics and brought major changes to east-central Europe and south-central Asia (see Map 30.1). In many ways, the transformation of this vast and diverse region paralleled the experience of the former East Bloc countries and Russia itself (see the section Coping with Change in the Former East Bloc). Though most of the fourteen new republics, which included almost one-half of the former Soviet Union’s total population, adopted some sort of liberal market capitalism, political reforms varied broadly. In the Baltic republics, where Gorbachev’s perestroika had quickly encouraged powerful separatist movements, reformers established working democratic government. While Ukrainians struggled to construct a working democratic system, elsewhere — in Belarus, Kazakhstan and the other Central Asian republics, and the new republics in the Caucasus — systems of “imitation democracy” and outright authoritarian rule took hold.

Though Putin encouraged the former Soviet republics to join the Commonwealth of Independent States, a loose confederation dominated by Russia that supposedly represented regional common interests, stability and agreement proved elusive. Popular protests and revolts challenged local politicians and Russian interests alike. In Georgia, the so-called Rose Revolution (November 2003) brought a pro-Western, pro-NATO leader to power. In Ukraine, the Orange Revolution (November 2004–January 2005) challenged the results of a national election and expressed popular nationalist desires for more distance from Russia. Similar Color Revolutions in Belarus, Kyrgyzstan, and Moldova exemplified the unpredictable path toward democratization in the new republics that bordered the powerful Russian Federation.

Putin took an aggressive and at times interventionist stance toward anti-Russian revolt in the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Russian borderlands. Conflict has been particularly intense in the oil-rich Caucasus, where an unstable combination of nationalist separatism and ethnic and religious tensions challenges Russian dominance. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russian troops have repeatedly invaded Chechnya (CHEHCH-nyuh), a tiny Muslim republic with 1 million inhabitants on Russia’s southern border that declared its independence in 1991. Despite ultimate Russian victory in the Chechen wars, the cost of the conflict was high. Thousands lost their lives, and both sides committed serious human rights abuses. Moscow declared an end to military operations in April 2009, but Chechen insurgents, inspired by nationalism and Islamic radicalism, continued to fight. Russia also intervened in the independent state of Georgia, which won independence when the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Russian troops also invaded Georgia in 2008 to support a separatist movement in South Ossetia (ah-SEE-shuh), which eventually established a breakaway independent republic recognized only by Russia and a handful of small states.

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Revolution broke out again in Ukraine in February 2014, and when popular protests brought down the pro-Russian government, Putin’s response was rapid and radically interventionist. In late February Russian troops marched into Crimea, a strategically valuable peninsula in the Black Sea where pro-Russian sentiment ran high. The territory, with a major naval base in the city of Sevastopol and large reserves of oil and natural gas, was incorporated into the Russian Federation. Then, in response to the anti-Russian policies of the new Ukrainian government, in April 2014 a group of armed rebels took over the regional capital Donetsk and other cities in eastern Ukraine and declared the establishment of the separatist, pro-Russian Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics” (see Map 30.1).

A full-scale military assault by Ukrainian government troops failed to push back or defeat the separatist forces. According to Ukrainian and U.S. sources, only direct Russian intervention, including substantial supplies of weaponry and troops, prevented the defeat of the insurrection. In response, the United States and the European Union placed economic sanctions on Russia, and since February 2015 a shaky ceasefire has dampened hostilities in eastern Ukraine. Yet the outcome of the conflict remains uncertain, a telling example of the way great power interests continue to create instability in the former Soviet republics.