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One question that development experts ponder is when Somalia and other sub-Saharan African countries will shift from having high death rates and birthrates to low death rates and birthrates. Such a demographic transition, which occurs in response to improved living conditions, has begun to take place in some African cities; it can be seen clearly through the history of a rich European nation such as Sweden in response to improved living conditions. We can break down the demographic transition into four stages. During stage 1, birthrates and death rates are high. Because birthrates and death rates are approximately equal, a population in stage 1 is stable or grows very slowly. As death rates decline, due to more dependable food supplies, improved sanitation, and drinking water supplies, populations enter stage 2. Because birthrates remain high, stage 2 populations grow rapidly. As you can see in Figure 5.27, Sweden entered stage 2 during the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Many developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, have fertility rates (see Figure 5.8, page 135) and death rates that would place them in this second stage of demographic transition.

During stage 3, death rates keep dropping—but so do birthrates, which translates to slower population growth. Declining birthrates may result from improved economic conditions, higher life expectancy, higher literacy particularly among women, and improved access to contraceptives and family-planning information. Today’s developed countries moved into stage 3 sometime during the 20th century. Most developing countries in Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean are currently in stage 3.

Populations stabilize at stage 4 when birthrates approximately balance death rates. The developing countries currently in stage 3 of demographic transition are expected to reach stage 4 sometime during the 21st century. For example, a Central American country rapidly approaching stage 4 is Costa Rica (Figure 5.28). As Figure 5.28a shows, Costa Rica’s population is expected to stabilize by the year 2050. The quality of life in Costa Rica has improved dramatically as it has passed from stage 2 to 3 and approaches stage 4. By 2014 life expectancy at birth in Costa Rica increased to 78, two years lower than in the United States, and its total fertility rate had fallen to 1.9 births, lower than in the United States in 2014 and equal to that in Iceland (Figure 5.28b).

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While demographic transition theory explains the history of today’s highly developed countries, demographers have suggested that some nations may be trapped in a lower state of development by poverty, overpopulation, and low literacy. That’s why investing in development appears to help stabilize the populations of such countries (Figure 5.29 and Figure 5.30).

Whether in Asia, Africa, the Americas, or Europe, women with more education and who are sufficiently empowered to make critical choices in their lives bear fewer children. There are several reasons for this pattern. First, educated women marry later and they wait longer to have their first child. In addition, educated women are more likely to use contraceptives and are more receptive to family-planning information. Educated women also tend to spend more time on their careers and have less time to focus on raising many children. Finally, educated women have greater influence on those around them, and they become formal and informal educators themselves, passing on their perspectives to those around them and to succeeding generations.

As we learned earlier, population density depends on not only population growth within a country’s borders, but also immigration from other countries. One way to reduce migration pressure is to lessen economic disparities across borders. Such investment occurred in Western Europe following the expansion of the European Union (EU) in 1986 to include some of the then poorer countries of Western Europe, including Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain. The EU invested heavily in their economic infrastructure; as a result of such investments and local entrepreneurship, these countries entered the 21st century much better off economically. As a consequence of improved opportunities at home, fewer people emigrated from these nations; instead, they became a destination for immigrants. However, the economic downturn of 2008, which contributed to an economic crisis across Europe, again sent many residents of these countries abroad, seeking better opportunities elsewhere.

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At the forefront of these developments was Ireland, which quickly developed into one of the strongest economies anywhere. In 2008 Ireland ranked 5th among the nations of the world on its Human Development Index score. At least partly influenced by improved economic prospects at home, the status of Ireland changed from being a major source of immigrants to being a destination for immigrants from around the world. However, the economic recession near the end of 2008 greatly reduced immigration to Ireland and by 2009 more people were again leaving Ireland than entering. However, with economic recovery, immigration to Ireland began increasing again after 2010; by 2015 one-third of Ireland’s population growth was the result of immigration. These patterns suggest that investment in development in poorer countries will have multiple benefits, including reduced population growth and decreased immigration pressures.