confirmation bias (p. 105) illusory correlation (p. 105) personal probability (p. 107) probability (p. 107) expected relative-frequency probability (p. 107) trial (p. 107) outcome (p. 107) success (p. 107) | The expected relative-frequency probability is the likelihood of an event occurring based on the actual outcome of many, many trials. Illusory correlation is the phenomenon of believing one sees an association between variables when no such association exists. Personal probability is a person's own judgment about the likelihood that an event will occur; also called subjective probability. In reference to probability, outcome refers to the result of a trial. In reference to probability, success refers to the outcome for which we're trying to determine the probability. Confirmation bias is our usually unintentional tendency to pay attention to evidence that confirms what we already believe and to ignore evidence that would disconfirm our beliefs. Confirmation biases closely follow illusory correlations. Probability is the likelihood that a particular outcome-out of all possible outcomes-will occur. In reference to probability, a trial refers to each occasion that a given procedure is carried out. |