1.5 PREFACE

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Statistics is hot. According to an article in the New York Times, statistics is perhaps the most promising, adventurous career option you can choose right now—and the field is likely to expand significantly in the future, thanks to the large amounts of information (called big data) available to us in this digital age. Gone is the stereotype of boring (but influential) statistics geeks hiding behind their glowing screens. The new reality requires smart, reflective people who have been trained to explore big data, transforming them into something useful, while not losing sight of the people behind the numbers. This book trains you to find and create data, ask tough questions about a data set, interpret the feedback coming from data analysis, and display data in ways that reveal a precise, coherent, data-driven story. Statistical reasoning is not at the cutting edge of information; statistical reasoning is the cutting edge of information.

If you dare to embrace what your professor is teaching you, it will bring you to the brink of personal and social change. You will have to make many decisions about how you think—and that covers, well, your entire life. There are probably some natural boundaries to the benefits of statistical reasoning, such as the power of intuition. But every time we think we have bumped into a boundary, somebody busts through it, wins a Nobel Prize, and challenges the rest of us to become more creative as we learn how to live together on this beautiful planet.

We dare you to love this course.

Principles for Teaching Statistics

In their classic and persuasive article, Marsha Lovett and Joel Greenhouse (2000) present principles to teach statistics more effectively (all based on empirical research from cognitive psychology). And other researchers continue to build on their helpful work (see Benassi, Overson, & Hakala, 2014). We look to this body of research as we create every edition of this statistics text, from designing the pedagogy to deciding what specific examples to include. Six principles emerge from this research on teaching statistics and drive our text:

  1. Practice and participation. Recent research has shown that active learning, broadly defined, increases student performance and reduces the failure rate in science courses, including psychology courses (Freeman et al., 2013). This principle pertains to work outside the classroom as well (Lovett & Greenhouse, 2000). Based on these findings, we encourage students to actively participate in their learning throughout the text. Students can practice their knowledge through the many applied exercises, especially in the Applying the Concepts and Putting It All Together sections. In these sections, the source of the original data is often supplied, whether it is data from the Centers for Disease Control or a Marist poll, encouraging students to dig deeper. And students can take advantage of data sets from the General Social Survey and EESEE Case Studies to “play” with statistics beyond the exercises in the book.

  2. Vivid examples. Researchers have found that students are most likely to remember concepts illustrated with a vivid instructional tool (VanderStoep, Fagerlin, & Feenstra, 2000). So, whenever possible, we use striking, vivid examples to make statistical concepts memorable, including the weights of cockroaches to explain standardization, destructive hurricanes in the discussion of confounding variables, entertainment by a clown during in vitro fertilization to teach chi square, a Damien Hirst dot painting to explain randomness, and a house purchase by Beyoncé to highlight celebrity outliers. Vivid examples are often accompanied by photos to enhance their memorability. When such examples are drawn from outside the academic literature, we follow with engaging research examples from the behavioral sciences to increase the memorability of important concepts.

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  3. Integrating new knowledge with previous knowledge. When connecting new material to existing student knowledge, students can more easily embed that new material into “a framework that will enable them to learn, retrieve, and use new knowledge when they need it” (p. 7, Ambrose & Lovett, 2014). Throughout the text, we illustrate new concepts with examples that connect to things most students already know. Chapter 1 includes an exercise that uses students’ knowledge of contemporary music, specifically the percentage of rhyming words in rap lyrics, to teach students how to operationalize variables. In Chapter 2, an example from Britain’s Got Talent uses students’ understanding of the ranking systems on reality shows to explain ordinal variables. In Chapter 5, we use students’ understanding of the potential fallibility of pregnancy tests to teach the difference between Type I and Type II errors. And in Chapter 14, we use the predictive abilities of Facebook profiles to teach regression. Learning in different contexts helps students to transfer knowledge to new situations, so we use multiple examples for each concept – typically an initial one that is easier to grasp followed by more traditional behavioral science research examples.

  4. Confronting misconceptions. Conversely, some kinds of prior knowledge can slow students down (Lovett & Greenhouse, 2000). Students know many statistical words – from independent to variability to significant. But they know the “everyday” definitions of these words, and this prior knowledge can impede their learning of the statistical definitions. Throughout the book, we point out students’ likely prior understanding of these key terms, and contrast that with the newer statistical definitions. We also include exercises aimed at having students explain the various ways a given word can be understood. Plus, in Chapter 5, we introduce ways in which other types of misconceptions can emerge through illusory correlation, confirmation bias, and coincidence. Throughout the rest of the book, we highlight these types of flawed thinking with examples, and show how statistics can be the antidote to these kinds of misconceptions – whether it’s a belief that holiday weight gain is a serious problem, cheating is associated with better grades, or online personality quizzes are always accurate.

  5. Real-time feedback. It’s not uncommon – in fact, it’s actually expected – for students to make mistakes when they first try their hand at a new statistical technique. Research demonstrates that one of the best ways to get past these errors is to provide students with immediate feedback (Kornell & Metcalfe, 2014). For this reason, we include solutions at the back of the book for all Check Your Learning exercises that fall after each section of a chapter and for the odd-numbered exercises at the end of each chapter. Importantly, we don’t just provide final answers. We offer fully worked-out solutions that show students all of the steps and calculations to arrive at the final answers. That way, students can figure out exactly where they went astray. Learning is simply more efficient when students can immediately correct their mistakes or receive validation that they answered correctly. This learning is also bolstered by other types of feedback embedded in the book that students can use as models. These include worked-out examples in the chapters and additional “How It Works” worked-out examples at the end of each chapter. As Lovett and Greenhouse (2000) explain “seeing worked examples before solving new problems makes the subsequent problem solving an easier task” (p. 201).

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  6. Repetition. There is a growing literature on the role of “desirable difficulty” in learning – that is, students learn better when they struggle with new material with support (Clark & Bjork, 2014). The three techniques of spacing, interleaving, and testing – all based on the central idea of repetition – help to create the right level of difficulty to help students learn more efficiently.

Trends in Statistics: What’s Coming Next?

Statistics and statistical reasoning are in the midst of profound changes. Here are two important trends:

Trend 1: Visual Displays of Data. On the one hand, Chapter 3 of this text reminds us that there is nothing very new about creating visual displays of data. On the other hand, the entire field has gone topsy-turvy with graphic artists, newspaper editors, journalists, and anyone with an imagination and a computer jumping into the action. Data graphics are the hot new way to search for patterns, tell data-driven stories, and gain new insights from the enormous volumes of information available to us. This trend isn’t coming; it’s here. And the field needs a lot of guidance, without suppressing all that energy and creativity. In short, the field needs smart, hard-working, creative, and visually oriented behavioral scientists.

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Trend 2: Free Software. Although earning a college degree is pretty expensive, the Internet has created opportunities for particular forms of education to progressively become less expensive. Massive open online courses (MOOCs) are just one of the more obvious efforts. One of your coauthors, Tom, took one MOOC with 80,000 other classmates. Kahn Academy online tutorials are another excellent, low-cost (though it costs you time) way to become better educated. A third opportunity is through the free statistical programs that are increasingly available online. We introduce one in this book: G*Power is free software that helps researchers determine statistical power and the appropriate sample size. Another is a statistical program simply called R. This is a free, sophisticated, open-source statistical software package; you can download it right now from the R Foundation. R will always be in development because its users are always improving it. As of this writing, R is still not that easy to use but people keep improving it. The future of statistics will probably have free, open-source software that is fairly easy to use.