The following excerpt from a humorous essay takes a lighthearted look at the concept of post hoc reasoning. Identify the cause and the effect discussed in each paragraph. Then, list several more plausible causes for each effect.

This essay appeared in the New York Times on January 13, 2008.

1

The other day I felt a cold coming on. So I decided to have chicken soup to ward off the cold. Nonetheless I got the cold. This happens all the time: you think you’re getting a cold; you have chicken soup; you get the cold anyway. So: is it possible that chicken soup gives you a cold?

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2

I will confess a bias: I’ve never understood the religious fervor that surrounds breast-feeding. There are fanatics out there who believe you should breast-feed your child until he or she is old enough to unbutton your blouse. Their success in conning a huge number of women into believing this is one of the truly grim things about modern life. Anyway, one of the main reasons given for breast-feeding is that breast-fed children are less prone to allergies. But children today are far more allergic than they were when I was growing up, when far fewer women breast-fed their children. I mean, what is it with all these children dropping dead from sniffing a peanut? This is new, friends, it’s brand-new new, and don’t believe anyone who says otherwise. So: is it possible that breast-feeding causes allergies?

3

It’s much easier to write a screenplay on a computer than on a typewriter. Years ago, when you wrote a screenplay on a typewriter, you had to retype the entire page just to make the smallest change; now, on the computer, you can make large and small changes effortlessly, you can fiddle with dialogue, you can change names and places with a keystroke. And yet movies are nowhere near as good as they used to be. In 1939, when screenwriters were practically still using quill pens, the following movies were among those nominated for best picture: Gone with the Wind, The Wizard of Oz, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, Wuthering Heights, and Stagecoach, and that’s not even the whole list. So: is it possible that computers are responsible for the decline of movies?

4

There is way too much hand-washing going on. Someone told me the other day that the act of washing your hands is supposed to last as long as it takes to sing the song “Happy Birthday.” I’m not big on hand-washing to begin with; I don’t even like to wash fruit, if you must know. But my own prejudices aside, all this washing-of-hands and use of Purell before picking up infants cannot be good. (By the way, I’m not talking about hand-washing in hospitals, I’m talking about everyday, run-of-the-mill hand-washing.) It can’t possibly make sense to keep babies so removed from germs that they never develop an immunity to them. Of course, this isn’t my original theory—I read it somewhere a few weeks ago, although I can’t remember where. The New York Times? The Wall Street Journal? Who knows? Not me, that’s for sure. So: is it possible that reading about hand-washing leads to memory loss?