EXAMPLE 4.21 Career in Big Business: NFL

Worldwide, the sports industry has become synonymous with big business. It has been estimated by the United Nations that sports account for nearly 3% of global economic activity. The most profitable sport in the world is professional football under the management of the National Football League (NFL).¹⁶ With multi-million-dollar signing contracts, the economic appeal of pursuing a career as a professional sports athlete is unquestionably strong. But what are the realities? Only 6.5% of high school football players go on to play at the college level. Of these, only 1.2% will play in the NFL.¹⁷ About 40% of the NFL players have a career of more than three years. Define these events for the sport of football:

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What is the probability that a high school football player competes in college and then goes on to have an NFL career of more than three years? We know that

The probability we want is, therefore,

Only about three of every 10,000 high school football players can expect to compete in college and have an NFL career of more than three years. High school football players would be wise to concentrate on studies rather than unrealistic hopes of fortune from pro football.