Question
4.129
4.129 Pick 3 and law of large numbers.
In Example 4.28 (pages 219–220), the mean payoff for the Tri-State Pick 3 lottery was found to be $0.50. In our discussion of the law of large numbers, we learned that the mean of a probability distribution describes the long-run average outcome. In this exercise, you will explore this concept using technology.
- Excel users: Input the values “0” and “500” in the first two rows of column A. Now input the corresponding probabilities of 0.999 and 0.001 in the first two rows of column B. Now choose “Random Number Generation” from the Data Analysis menu box. Enter “1” in the Number of Variables box, enter “20000” in the Number of Random Numbers box, choose “Discrete” for the Distribution option, enter the cell range of the -values and their probabilities ($A$1:$B$2) in Value and Probability Input Range box, and finally select Row 1 of any empty column for the Output Range. Click OK to find 20,000 realizations of outputted in the worksheet. Using Excel's AVERAGE() function, find the average of the 20,000 -values.
- JMP users: With a new data table, right-click on header of Column 1 and choose Column Info. In the drag-down dialog box named Initialize Data, pick Random option. Choose the bullet option of Random Indicator. Put the values of “0” and “500” in the first two Value dialog boxes, and put the values of 0.999 and 0.001 in the corresponding Proportion dialog boxes. Input the Enter “20000” into the Number of rows box, and then click OK. Find the average of the 20,000 -values.
- Minitab users: Input the values “0” and “500” in the first two rows of column 1 (c1). Now input the corresponding probabilities of 0.999 and 0.001 in the first two rows of column 2 (c2). Do the following pull-down sequence: Calc→ Random Data→ Discrete. Enter “20000” in the Number of rows of data to generate box, type “c3” in the Store in column(s) box, click-in “c1” in the Values in box, and click-in “c2” in the Probabilities in box. Click OK to find 20,000 realizations of outputted in the worksheet. Find the average of the 20,000 -values.
Whether you used Excel, JMP, or Minitab, how does the average value of the 20,000 -values compare with the mean reported in Example 4.28?