6.102 Predicting success of trainees.

What distinguishes managerial trainees who eventually become executives from those who, after expensive training, don’t succeed and leave the company? We have abundant data on past trainees—data on their personalities and goals, their college preparation and performance, even their family backgrounds and their hobbies. Statistical software makes it easy to perform dozens of significance tests on these dozens of variables to see which ones best predict later success. From running such tests, we find that future executives are signifcantly more likely than washouts to have an urban or suburban upbringing and an undergraduate degree in a technical field.

Explain clearly why using these “signifcant” variables to select future trainees is not wise. Then suggest a follow-up study using this year’s trainees as subjects that should clarify the importance of the variables identified by the first study.