NO TIME FOR FATALISM

The United States is among the world’s biggest emitters of greenhouse gases, yet for political reasons it has been reluctant to make significant reductions. It is one of the few countries that refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, a United Nations agreement adopted in 1997 that obligates endorsing countries to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. In 2010, the Obama administration signaled support for the Copenhagen Accord, which would commit the United States to a 17% reduction in greenhouse gases from 2005 levels by 2020, but carrying out those goals depends on Congress passing a climate bill. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) could decide to regulate CO₂ levels on its own; in 2007, the Supreme Court ruled that CO₂ qualifies as a pollutant and so the EPA is legally required to regulate it under the Clean Air Act. But so far, the EPA has been slow to act, perhaps fearing a backlash and legal challenges from industry.

Even if all the world’s greenhouse gas emissions were turned off today like a faucet, we would still face decades of warming and its consequences because of past emissions—what climate scientists refer to as heat in the pipeline. Basically, the climate has not yet caught up with the effects of burning fossil fuels in past decades because the oceans are slower to heat up than the land (as any beachgoer knows). But eventually, the oceans will catch up, leading to more warming of the atmosphere.

This grim reality could easily lead some to take a fatalistic attitude, but that would be a dangerous mistake, says Hector Galbraith. “We’ve got to get beyond the deer in the headlights stage and begin to think as conservation biologists about what we’re going to do about this to help to mitigate the impact.” These preventative measures are what he and other climate experts call “adaptation.”

Adaptation will not be easy. For many species, like Vermont’s maples, it may already be too late. But doing nothing, say scientists, risks turning a bad problem into a catastrophic one.

In concrete terms, adaptation means planning for the inevitable: more frequent droughts, heat waves, and severe storms, as well as a rise in sea level. Increasingly, cities and towns all across the country are taking steps to incorporate adaptation into urban and land-use policies—restricting new construction in flood zones, for example, and working to conserve water in drought-prone areas, as well as protecting wetlands.

But these efforts won’t do much to stem the tide unless we deal with the underlying cause of rapid climate change—runaway emissions of greenhouse gases. And that means dealing with the practices that collectively produce more than 90% of greenhouse gases in the United States today: burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, transportation, and industry.

“Fossil fuels are incredibly efficient sources of energy,” says Serreze, of the University of Colorado. “We’ve built our whole infrastructure around that. But what we didn’t realize is that it’s a trap, and that’s what we’re coming to grips with now.”