17.18 Marital status. Based on 2010 census data, the probability that a randomly chosen woman over 64 years of age is divorced is about 0.11. This probability is a long-run proportion based on all the millions of women over 64. Let’s suppose that the proportion stays at 0.11 for the next 45 years. Bridget is now 20 years old and is not married.
(a) Bridget thinks her own chances of being divorced after age 64 are about 5%. Explain why this is a personal probability.
(b) Give some good reasons Bridget’s personal probability might differ from the proportion of all women over 64 who are divorced.
(c) You are a government official charged with looking into the impact of the Social Security system on retirement-aged divorced women. You care only about the probability 0.11, not about anyone’s personal probability. Why?