Question 19.11

image 19.11 Simulating an opinion poll. A Gallup Poll on Presidents Day 2011 interviewed a random sample of 1015 adult Americans. Those in the sample were asked which U.S. president they regarded as the greatest. The poll showed that about 20% of adult Americans regarded Ronald Reagan as the greatest U.S. president. Suppose that this is exactly true. Choosing an adult American at random then has probability 0.2 of getting one who would identify Ronald Reagan as the greatest president. If we interview adult Americans separately, we can assume that their responses are independent. We want to know the probability that a simple random sample of 100 adult Americans will contain at least 25 who say that Ronald Reagan is the greatest U.S. president. Explain carefully how to do this simulation and simulate one repetition of the poll using line 112 of Table A. How many of the 100 adult Americans said that Ronald Reagan is the greatest U.S. president? Explain how you would estimate the probability by simulating many repetitions.