Question 3.21

3.21 Is a larger sample size always better? In February 2004, USA Today conducted an online poll. Visitors to its website were asked the following question: “Should the U.S. pass a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage?” Visitors could vote by clicking a button. The results as of 3:30 P.M. on February 25 were that 68.61% voted No and 31.39% voted Yes. A total of 63,046 votes had been recorded. Using our quick method, we find that the margin of error for 95% confidence for a sample of this size is roughly equal to four-tenths of 1 percentage point. Is it correct to say that, based on this USA Today online poll, we are 95% confident that 68.61% ±0.4% of American adults are opposed to having the United States pass a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage? Explain your answer. Be careful not to confuse your personal opinion with the statistical issues.