Question

III.20. Models, legitimate and not. A bridge deck contains 52 cards, four of each of the 13 face values ace, king, queen, jack, ten, nine, . . . , two. You deal a single card from such a deck and record the face value of the card dealt. Give an assignment of probabilities to the possible outcomes that should be correct if the deck is thoroughly shuffled. Give a second assignment of probabilities that is legitimate (that is, obeys the rules of probability) but differs from your first choice. Then give a third assignment of probabilities that is not legitimate, and explain what is wrong with this choice.