Tracing causes and effects

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Demonstrating a connection between causes and effects is rarely simple. For example, to explain why a chemistry course has a high failure rate, you might use these steps:

Post hoc fallacy

Because cause-and-effect reasoning is so complex, it is not surprising that writers frequently oversimplify it. In particular, writers sometimes assume that because one event follows another, the first is the cause of the second. This common fallacy is known as post hoc, from the Latin post hoc, ergo propter hoc, meaning “after this, therefore because of this.”

POST HOC FALLACY

Since Governor Cho took office, unemployment of minorities in the state has decreased by 7 percent. Governor Cho should be applauded for reducing unemployment among minorities.

Is the governor solely responsible for the decrease? Are there other reasons? It is not enough to show that the decrease in unemployment followed the governor’s taking office.