As already noted, a hypothesis may initially be tentative. Commonly, in fact, it will provide only one of several possible ways of explaining existing data. With repeated observation and experimentation, however, a good hypothesis gathers strength, and we have more and more confidence in it. When a number of related hypotheses survive repeated testing and come to be accepted as good bases for explaining what we see in nature, scientists articulate a broader explanation that accounts for all the hypotheses and the results of their tests. We call this statement a theory, a general explanation of the world supported by a large body of experiments and observations (see Fig. 1.2).
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FIG. 1.3
What caused the extinction of the dinosaurs?
BACKGROUND Dinosaurs were diverse and ecologically important for nearly 150 million years but became extinct about 66 million years ago.
OBSERVATION
HYPOTHESIS The impact of a large meteorite disrupted communities on land and in the sea, causing the extinction of the dinosaurs and many other species.
PREDICTIONS Independent evidence of a meteor impact should be found in rock layers corresponding to the time of the extinction and be rare or absent in older and younger beds.
FURTHER OBSERVATIONS
CONCLUSION A giant meteor struck Earth 66 million years ago, causing the extinction of the dinosaurs and many other species.
FOLLOW-
SOURCE Alvarez, W. 1998. T. rex and the Crater of Doom. New York: Vintage Press.
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Note that scientists use the word “theory” in a very particular way. In general conversation, “theory” is often synonymous with “hypothesis,” “idea,” or “hunch”—“I’ve got a theory about that.” But in a scientific context, the word “theory” has a specific meaning. Scientists speak in terms of theories only if hypotheses have withstood testing to the point where they provide a general explanation for many observations and experimental results. Just as a good hypothesis makes testable predictions, a good theory both generates good hypotheses and predicts their outcomes. Thus, scientists talk about the theory of gravity—