5.4 Fertility ranges greatly among countries and regions

5.4–5.7 Issues

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The human population and the demands it makes on the environment lie at the core of environmental science. The food we eat, including the variety, its level of processing, and the amounts, is one the most fundamental indicators of consumption by a population. Figure 5.7 contrasts the foods consumed by three families during a typical week. This stark contrast shows clearly that the pressure a population puts on Earth’s resources is a product of not just the size of a population, but also the rate at which individuals in a population consume resources. Typically, the level of resource use in a population increases with economic development.

FOOD FOR A WEEK CONTRASTS LEVELS OF CONSUMPTION IN DIFFERENT POPULATIONS
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FIGURE 5.7 These families, who posed with all the food they will eat in a week, give a visual demonstration of the great differences in consumption across societies.
(Ben Lister/Daily Mail/Solo Syndication) (Abir Abdullah/Oxfam) (Tom Pietrasik/Oxfam)

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Is population planning more of a global or regional problem? Perhaps both? Explain your answer.

In 2007 developed countries around the world had total fertility rates at or below the replacement level of fertility of 2.1 (Figure 5.8). Consequently, populations in these countries, such as those of Iceland and Ukraine, are now generally stable, approaching stability, or decreasing in size. Meanwhile, high levels of fertility and rapid population growth, as in Yemen, continue in many nations of sub-Saharan Africa, parts of the Middle East, and southern Asia.

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE DIFFERS GREATLY AROUND THE WORLD
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FIGURE 5.8 Many populations around the world have total fertility rates at or below the replacement level of 2.1 live births per woman. Many other populations are very close to replacement-level fertility. However, regional population trends in places like sub-Saharan Africa should not distract us from the great variation in trends among individual nations, each with its own specific qualities and needs. This is particularly significant in Africa, where, for example, variation in total fertility rate is higher than in any other major region. (Data from United Nations Human Development Report, 2009)

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If you were planning for social services, what changes would you need to anticipate over the next 40 years in sub-Saharan Africa? In Europe?

Each of these population trends presents a unique challenge. Populations with very low levels of fertility have a shrinking workforce of younger people who face the prospect of supporting a larger number of aged individuals in the population. On the other hand, high levels of fertility mean a large number of young in need of education, proper nutrition, and health care.

As a consequence of differences in fertility and population momentum, population trends differ a great deal among regions (Figure 5.9). Studies by the United Nations and others indicate that Europe’s population will decline over the next half-century, whereas the populations of Latin America, Asia, and North America will grow slowly. The same studies also predict moderate population growth in North Africa and Oceania. In contrast, rapid growth will continue in sub-Saharan Africa, where projections indicate that the population will more than double in the 40 years between 2010 and 2050.

VARIATION IN REGIONAL POPULATION GROWTH
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FIGURE 5.9 Population growth rates between 2009 and 2050 are projected to differ widely across the major world regions. (Data from U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, 2010)

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Think About It

  1. What types of age structure do you think you’d find in sub-Saharan Africa? In Europe? (Hint: See Figure 5.4.)

  2. Which regions have the highest total fertility rates? Which regions have the greatest variation in total fertility rates among countries?