SECTION 8.1 Exercises

For Exercises 8.1 and 8.2, see page 419; for 8.3 and 8.4, see page 421; for 8.5 to 8.7, see page 423; for 8.8 to 8.11, see pages 425426; for 8.12, see page 426; for 8.13 and 8.14, see page 429; and for 8.15 and 8.16, see page 431.

Question 8.17

8.17 What's wrong

Explain what is wrong with each of the following.

  1. The large-sample confidence interval for a population proportion is based on a t statistic.
  2. A large-sample significance test for an unknown proportion is plus or minus its standard error.
  3. You can use a significance test to evaluate the hypothesis versus the two-sided alternative.

8.17

(a) It is based on a statistic, not . (b) margin of error, not standard error. (c) does not belong in the hypotheses; it should be .

Question 8.18

8.18 What's wrong

Explain what is wrong with each of the following.

  1. If the -value for a significance test is 0.5, we can conclude that the null hypothesis is equally likely to be true or false.
  2. A student project used a confidence interval to describe the results in a final report. The confidence level was negative 95%.
  3. The margin of error for a confidence interval used for an opinion poll takes into account that fact that some of the questions were biased.

Question 8.19

8.19 Draw some pictures

Consider the binomial setting with and .

  1. The sample proportion will have a distribution that is approximately Normal. Give the mean and the standard deviation of this Normal distribution.
  2. Draw a sketch of this Normal distribution. Mark the location of the mean.
  3. Find a value for which the probability is 95% that will be between . Mark these two values on your sketch.

8.19

(a) . (c) The values are 0.476 and 0.724.

Question 8.20

8.20 Smartphones and purchases

A Google research study asked 5013 smartphone users about how they used their phones. In response to a question about purchases, 2657 reported that they purchased an item after using their smartphone to search for information about the item.6

  1. What is the sample size for this survey?
  2. In this setting, describe the population proportion in a short sentence.
  3. What is the count ? Describe the count in a short sentence.
  4. Find the sample proportion .
  5. Find , the standard error of .
  6. Give the 95% confidence interval for in the form of estimate plus or minus the margin of error.
  7. Give the confidence interval as an interval of percents.

Question 8.21

8.21 Soft drink consumption in New Zealand

A survey commissioned by the Southern Cross Healthcare Group reported that 16% of New Zealanders consume five or more servings of soft drinks per week. The data were obtained by an online survey of 2006 randomly selected New Zealanders over 15 years of age.7

  1. What number of survey respondents reported that they consume five or more servings of soft drinks per week? You will need to round your answer. Why?
  2. Find a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of New Zealanders who report that they consume five or more servings of soft drinks per week.
  3. Convert the estimate and your confidence interval to percents.
  4. Discuss reasons why the estimate might be biased.

8.21

(a) . We need to round because you can’t have .96 of a person, so . (b) (0.144, 0.176). (c) (14.4%, 17.6%). (d) Because the numbers are self-reported, those who responded could be more or less likely to discuss their soft-drink consumption than those who didn’t respond.

Question 8.22

8.22 Nonconforming switches

In Example 5.5 (pages 247248), we calculated some binomial probabilities for inspection of a batch of switches from a large shipment of switches. Suppose that in an SRS of 150 switches, we have 10 failures.

  1. Find the sample proportion.
  2. What is the margin of error for 95% confidence?
  3. Find the 95% confidence interval for the proportion of nonconforming switches in the large shipment from which the SRS was selected.

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Question 8.23

8.23 Significance test for nonconforming switches.

Refer to the previous exercise. In Example 5.5 (pages 247248), we assumed that the proportion of nonconforming switches in the large shipment was 8%.

  1. Give the null and alternative hypotheses for performing a significance test in this setting.
  2. Find the test statistic.
  3. Find the -value.
  4. Write a short summary of your conclusion.

8.23

(a) . (b) . (c) . (d) The data do not show that the proportion of nonconforming switches is different than the assumed 8%.

Question 8.24

8.24 Customer preferences for your new product.

A sample of 50 potential customers was asked to use your new product and the product of the leading competitor. After one week, they were asked to indicate which product they preferred. In the sample, 30 potential customers said that they preferred your product.

  1. Find the sample proportion.
  2. What is the margin of error for 95% confidence?
  3. Find the 95% confidence interval for the proportion of potential customers who prefer your product.

Question 8.25

8.25 How many potential customers should you sample?

Refer to the previous exercise. If you want the 95% margin of error to be 0.06 or less, what would you choose for a sample size? Explain how you calculated your answer and show your work.

8.25

Using the estimated proportion of 0.6 for , so .

Question 8.26

8.26 How much influence do social media have on purchasing decisions?

A Gallup poll asked this question of 18,525 U.S. adults aged 18 and older.8 The response “No influence at all” was given by 62% of the respondents. Find a 99% confidence for the true proportion of U.S. adults who would choose “No influence at all” as their response.

Question 8.27

8.27 Canadian teens pay to download music.

A survey of 416 Canadian teens aged 12 to 17 years were asked about downloading music from the Internet.9 Of these, 316 reported that they have used a fee-based website for their downloads.

  1. What proportion of the Canadian teens in the sample used a fee-based website to download music?
  2. Find the 95% margin of error for the estimate.
  3. Compute the 95% confidence interval for the population proportion.
  4. Write a short paragraph explaining the meaning of the confidence interval.
  5. Do you prefer to report the sample proportion with the margin of error or the confidence interval? Give reasons for your answer.
  6. Are there any issues with teens reporting their downloading activities accurately? Discuss.

8.27

(a) 0.76. (b) 0.041. (c) (0.719, 0.801). (d) With 95% confidence, the proportion of Canadian teens aged 12 to 17 who use a fee-based website for their music downloads is between 71.9% and 80.1%. (e) Answers will vary. (f) Answers will vary. Teens may not truthfully report their fee-based website usage, especially if they regularly download music illegally.

Question 8.28

8.28 Country food and Inuits.

Country food includes seal, caribou, whale, duck, fish, and berries and is an important part of the diet of the aboriginal people called Inuits, who inhabit Inuit Nunaat, the northern region of what is now called Canada. A survey of Inuits in Inuit Nunaat reported that 3274 out of 5000 respondents said that at least half of the meat and fish that they eat is country food.10 Find the sample proportion and a 95% confidence interval for the population proportion of Inuits who eat meat and fish that are at least half country food.

Question 8.29

8.29 Mathematician tosses coin 10,000 times!

The South African mathematician John Kerrich, while a prisoner of war during World War II, tossed a coin 10,000 times and obtained 5067 heads.

  1. Is this significant evidence at the 5% level that the probability that Kerrich's coin comes up heads is not 0.5?
  2. Give a 95% confidence interval to see what probabilities of heads are roughly consistent with Kerrich's result.

8.29

(a) . The data do not provide evidence that the coin is biased. (b) (0.497, 0.516).

Question 8.30

8.30 “Guitar Hero” and “Rock Band.”

An electronic survey of 7061 game players of “Guitar Hero” and “Rock Band” reported that 67% of players of these games who do not currently play a musical instrument said that they are likely to begin playing a real musical instrument in the next two years.11 The reports describing the survey do not give the number of respondents who do not currently play a musical instrument.

  1. Explain why it is important to know the number of respondents who do not currently play a musical instrument.
  2. Assume that half of the respondents do not currently play a musical instrument. Find the count of players who said that they are likely to begin playing a real musical instrument in the next two years.
  3. Give a 99% confidence interval for the population proportion who would say that they are likely to begin playing a real musical instrument in the next two years.
  4. The survey collected data from two separate consumer panels. There were 3300 respondents from the LightSpeed consumer panel and the others were from Guitar Center's proprietary consumer panel. Comment on the sampling procedure used for this survey and how it would influence your interpretation of the findings.

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Question 8.31

8.31 “Guitar Hero” and “Rock Band.”

Refer to the previous exercise.

  1. How would the result that you reported in part (c) of the previous exercise change if only 25% of the respondents said that they did not currently play a musical instrument?
  2. Do the same calculations for a case in which the percent is 75%.
  3. The main conclusion of the survey that appeared in many news stories was that 67% of players of “Guitar Hero” and “Rock Band” who do not currently play a musical instrument said that they are likely to begin playing a real musical instrument in the next two years. What can you conclude about the effect of the three scenarios—part (b) in the previous exercise and parts (a) and (b) in this exercise—on the margin of error for the main result?

8.31

(a) (0.641, 0.699). (b) (0.653, 0.687). (c) While it’s true that if the sample size gets smaller or bigger, the margin of error will go up or down, in all three cases, the sample is quite large and the results don’t differ that much, so the main conclusion still holds.

Question 8.32

8.32 Students doing community service

In a sample of 116,250 first-year college students, the National Survey of Student Engagement reported that 43% participated in community service or volunteer work.12

  1. Find the margin of error for 99% confidence.
  2. Here are some facts from the report that summarizes the survey. The students were from 622 four-year colleges and universities. The response rate was 29%. Institutions paid a participation fee of between $1800 and $7800 based on the size of their undergraduate enrollment. Discuss these facts as possible sources of error in this study. How do you think these errors would compare with the error that you calculated in part (a)?

Question 8.33

8.33 Plans to study abroad.

The survey described in the previous exercise also asked about items related to academics. In response to one of these questions, 43% of first-year students reported that they plan to study abroad.

  1. Based on the information available, what is the value of the count of students who plan to study abroad?
  2. Give a 99% confidence interval for the population proportion of first-year college students who plan to study abroad.

8.33

(a) 49,987 or 49,988. (b) (0.426, 0.434).

Question 8.34

8.34 How would the confidence interval change?

Refer to Exercise 8.32. Would a 90% confidence interval be wider or narrower than the one that you found in that exercise? Verify your results by computing the interval.

Question 8.35

8.35 How would the confidence interval change?

Refer to Exercise 8.32. Would a 95% confidence interval be wider or narrower than the one that you found in that exercise? Verify your results by computing the interval.

8.35

Narrower. The margin of error is now 0.00285, which makes the interval (0.427, 0.433).

Question 8.36

8.36 Can we use th test?

In each of the following cases, is the sample large enough to permit safe use of the test? (The population is very large.)

  1. and .
  2. and .
  3. and .
  4. and .

Question 8.37

8.37 Shipping the orders on time.

As part of a quality improvement program, your mail-order company is studying the process of filling customer orders. According to company standards, an order is shipped on time if it is sent within two working days of the time it is received. You select an SRS of 100 of the 6000 orders received in the past month for an audit. The audit reveals that 87 of these orders were shipped on time. Find a 95% confidence interval for the true proportion of the month's orders that were shipped on time.

8.37

(0.804, 0.936).

Question 8.38

8.38 Instant versus fresh-brewed coffee.

A matched pairs experiment compares the taste of instant coffee with fresh-brewed coffee. Each subject tastes two unmarked cups of coffee, one of each type, in random order and states which he or she prefers. Of the 50 subjects who participate in the study, 19 prefer the instant coffee and the other 31 prefer fresh-brewed. Take to be the proportion of the population that prefers fresh-brewed coffee.

  1. Test the claim that a majority of people prefer the taste of fresh-brewed coffee. Report the statistic and its -value. Is your result significant at the 5% level? What is your practical conclusion?
  2. Find a 90% confidence interval for .

Question 8.39

8.39 Checking the demographics of a sample.

CASE 8.2 Of the 500 households that responded to the Christmas tree marketing survey, 38% were from rural areas (including small towns), and the other 62% were from urban areas (including suburbs). According to the census, 36% of Indiana households are in rural areas, and the remaining 64% are in urban areas. Let be the proportion of rural respondents. Set up hypotheses about , and perform a test of significance to examine how well the sample represents the state in regard to rural versus urban residence. Summarize your results.

8.39

. The data do not show a difference between the sample and the state census information. The sample is a reasonable representation of the state with regard to rural versus urban residence.

Question 8.40

8.40 More on demographics.

CASE 8.2 In the previous exercise, we arbitrarily chose to state the hypotheses in terms of the proportion of rural respondents. We could as easily have used the proportion of urban respondents.

435

  1. Write hypotheses in terms of the proportion of urban residents to examine how well the sample represents the state in regard to rural versus urban residence.
  2. Perform the test of significance and summarize the results.
  3. Compare your results with the results of the previous exercise. Summarize and generalize your conclusion.

Question 8.41

8.41 High-income households on a mailing list

Land's Beginning sells merchandise through the mail. It is considering buying a list of addresses from a magazine. The magazine claims that at least 30% of its subscribers have high incomes (that is, household income in excess of $120,000). Land's Beginning would like to estimate the proportion of high-income people on the list. Verifying income is difficult, but another company offers this service. Land's Beginning will pay to verify the incomes of an SRS of people on the magazine's list. They would like the margin of error of the 95% confidence interval for the proportion to be 0.04 or less. Use the guessed value to find the required sample size.

8.41

.

Question 8.42

8.42 Change the specs

Refer to the previous exercise. For each of the following variations on the design specifications, state whether the required sample size will be larger, smaller, or the same as that found in Exercise 8.41.

  1. Use a 90% confidence interval.
  2. Change the allowable margin of error to 0.02.
  3. Use a planning value of .
  4. Use a different company to do the income verification.

Question 8.43

8.43 Be an entrepreneur:

A student organization wants to start a nightclub for students under the age of 21. To assess support for this proposal, the organization will select an SRS of students and ask each respondent if he or she would patronize this type of establishment. About 70% of the student body are expected to respond favorably.

  1. What sample size is required to obtain a 95% confidence interval with an approximate margin of error of 0.05?
  2. Suppose that 55% of the sample responds favorably. Calculate the margin of error of the 95% confidence interval.

8.43

(a) . (b) Using , the margin of error is 0.0543.

Question 8.44

8.44 Are the customers dissatisfied?

A cell phone manufacturer would like to know what proportion of its customers are dissatisfied with the service received from their local distributor. The customer relations department will survey a random sample of customers and compute a 95% confidence interval for the proportion that are dissatisfied. From past studies, the department believes that this proportion will be about 0.09.

  1. Find the sample size needed if the margin of error of the confidence interval is to be about 0.02.
  2. Suppose 12% of the sample say that they are dissatisfied. What is the margin of error of the 99% confidence interval?

Question 8.45

8.45 Increase student fees?

You have been asked to survey students at a large college to determine the proportion that favor an increase in student fees to support an expansion of the student newspaper. Each student will be asked whether he or she is in favor of the proposed increase. Using records provided by the registrar, you can select a random sample of students from the college. After careful consideration of your resources, you decide that it is reasonable to conduct a study with a sample of 200 students.

  1. Construct a table of the margins of error for 95% confidence when takes the values 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9.
  2. Make a graph of margin of error versus the value of .

8.45

(a) For 0.1: 0.0416. For 0.2: 0.0554. For 0.3: 0.0635. For 0.4: 0.0679. For 0.5: 0.0693. For 0.6: 0.0679. For 0.7: 0.0635. For 0.8: 0.0554. For 0.9: 0.0416.

Question 8.46

8.46 Justify the cost of the survey.

A former editor of the student newspaper agrees to underwrite the study in the previous exercise because she believes the results will demonstrate that most students support an increase in fees. She is willing to provide funds for a sample of size 400. Write a short summary for your benefactor of why the increased sample size will provide better results.

Question 8.47

8.47 Are the customers dissatisfied?

Refer to Exercise 8.44, where you computed the sample size based on the width of a confidence interval. Now we will use the same setting to determine the sample size based on a significance test. You want to test the null hypothesis that the population proportion is 0.09 using a two-sided test with and 80% power. Use 0.19 as the proportion for the alternative. What sample size would you recommend? Note that you need to specify an alternative hypothesis to answer this question.

8.47

.

Question 8.48

8.48 Nonconforming switches?

Refer to Exercises 8.22 and 8.23, where you found a confidence interval and performed a significance test for nonconforming switches. Find the sample size needed for testing the null hypothesis that the population proportion is 0.08 versus the one-sided alternative that the population proportion is greater than 0.08. Use , 80% power, and 0.20 as the alternative for your calculations.