Chapter 1. A Scientific Look at Psychics

Introduction

Chapter 1
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You must read each slide, and complete any questions on the slide, in sequence.
Representativeness Heuristic
A mental shortcut for deciding the likelihood of an event by how much it resembles what we consider to be a “typical” example of that event.
Confirmation Bias
A bias in which we only look for evidence that confirms what we already believe, thereby strengthening the original effect.
Introspection
Reflecting on our own thoughts and experiences to find relevant evidence.
Hindsight Bias
A sense that we “knew it all along” after we learn the actual outcome.
Overconfidence Phenomenon
Our tendency to be overly confident in the correctness of our own judgments.
Better-than-average Effect
The tendency to overestimate our skills, abilities, and performance when comparing ourselves to others.
Pleasure Paradox
When an introspective analysis regarding a positive experience results in it becoming less enjoyable.
Replication
Recreating another person's study to see if the findings are the same.
Empirical Research
Gaining knowledge with the use of systematic observation, experience, or measurement.
Nonempirical Research
Gaining knowledge with the use of nonsystematic methods such as the examination of personal experiences and opinions.

Psychology as a Science

In this activity, you will use science to explore the world of psychics and to avoid falling victim to the flaws of thinking.

Dr. Melanie Maggard

Dr. Natalie J. Ciarocco, Monmouth University

Dr. David B. Strohmetz, Monmouth University

Dr. Gary W. Lewandowski, Jr., Monmouth University

Something to Think About...

Being a good scientist requires objectivity, skepticism, creativity, empirical reasoning, and communication. Since psychology is a science, psychologists should strive to develop these characteristics in their practice and research. As scientists, we can use these skill sets to test a range of questions we might have about the world around us, and to explain and predict human behavior and thoughts.

Something to Think About...

After reading about our natural flaws in thinking, think about how they might affect our ability to be good scientists. For example, what is your take on the legitimacy of psychics? Do you believe in clairvoyance, or know people who do? How do your past experiences or beliefs shape your attitudes about this topic? Let’s see if, in spite of past experiences or beliefs, you can use what you have learned in class to analyze the topic of psychics through an objective, scientific lens.

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Flaws in Thinking

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Scenario: You remember a time when you visited a psychic, who predicted that you would meet a person who would become a close friend. Behold—you then met someone at a party and became friends only weeks later!

  • Representativeness Heuristic

  • Confirmation Bias

  • Hindsight Bias

Question 1.1

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3
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Flaws in Thinking

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Scenario: You often refer to yourself as Psychic Sammie because the predictions you make about your friends’ lives turn out to be more accurate than what your friends predict. You find this title appropriate and consider opening a fortune-telling stand to make some extra cash.

  • Better-than-average Effect

  • Introspection

  • Pleasure Paradox

Question 1.2

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3
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Flaws in Thinking

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Scenario: Lisa prides herself on being a good psychic and routinely tells new clients about her success in predicting major life events. When you ask her how she can be sure that her predictions come true, Lisa avoids the question and states that she just knows it to be true.

  • Introspection

  • Hindsight Bias

  • Overconfidence Phenomenon

Question 1.3

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3
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Characteristics of a Good Scientist

There has been a recent surge in research on psychics, such as that of Bem—who surprised the scientific world with evidence supporting the validity of psychic claims (2011)—and others who have attempted to replicate his findings.

Question 1.4

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Characteristics of a Good Scientist

Researchers who replicate Bem’s (2011) studies are recreating the same methods he used, but with different samples.

  • Replication

Question 1.5

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4
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Characteristics of a Good Scientist

Since you want to be a good scientist, you decide to be open-minded about the credibility of psychics and conduct some research of your own. In order to collect data for your study, you ask your family to provide personal examples of psychic phenomena.

  • Empirical Research

  • Nonempirical Research

Question 1.6

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2
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Characteristics of a Good Scientist

Because your first study provided you with limited insight into the credibility of psychics, you decide to conduct another study. You call a famous psychic, record the predictions he makes about you for 6 months, and then compare the predictions to real-life events.

Question 1.7

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2
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Characteristics of a Good Scientist

You are determined to complete your research on the credibility of psychics and decide to conduct one last study (third time's the charm!). In a series of trials, you ask a group of proclaimed psychics to predict which card you will pull out of a deck. You record the psychics' predictions and the correct answers, comparing the accuracy of their predictions with the results that would be expected by chance.

Question 1.8

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2
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Take Home Message

You know now that being a good scientist is not easy, but it is worthwhile! Keep in mind that personal experiences, though useful in giving us ideas for research, can lead to our making assumptions (and you know what they say about assumptions). These assumptions often lead to flaws in our thinking, which, in turn, keep us from seeing a situation for what it really is.

Strive to ask questions, remain objective, and be open-minded when presented with ideas and findings from research. Taking these steps grows your knowledge about the world through systematic observations and measurements, and means you are well on your way to becoming a true scientist.

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