STATISTICS: Concepts and Controversies
BRIEF CONTENTS
CONTENTS
TO THE TEACHER
APPLICATIONS INDEX
PRELUDE
STATISTICS AND YOU
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
PART I
Where Do Data Come From?
Talking about data: Individuals and variables
Observational studies
Sample surveys
Census
Experiments
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CHAPTER 1 EXERCISES
Samples, Good and Bad
How to sample badly
Simple random samples
Can you trust a sample?
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CHAPTER 2 EXERCISES
What Do Samples Tell Us?
From sample to population
Sampling variability
Margin of error and all that
Confidence statements
Sampling from large populations
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CHAPTER 3 EXERCISES
Sample Surveys in the Real World
How sample surveys go wrong
Sampling errors
Nonsampling errors
Wording questions
How to live with nonsampling errors
Sample design in the real world
The challenge of Internet surveys
Probability samples
Questions to ask before you believe a poll
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CHAPTER 4 EXERCISES
Experiments, Good and Bad
Talking about experiments
How to experiment badly
Randomized comparative experiments
The logic of experimental design
Statistical significance
How to live with observational studies
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CHAPTER 5 EXERCISES
Experiments in the Real World
Equal treatment for all
Double-blind experiments
Refusals, nonadherers, and dropouts
Can we generalize?
Experimental design in the real world
Matched pairs and block designs
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CHAPTER 6 EXERCISES
Data Ethics
First principles
Institutional review boards
Informed consent
Confidentiality
Clinical trials
Behavioral and social science experiments
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CHAPTER 7 EXERCISES
Measuring
Measurement basics
Know your variables
Measurements, valid and invalid
Measurements, accurate and inaccurate
Improving reliability, reducing bias
Pity the poor psychologist
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CHAPTER 8 EXERCISES
Do the Numbers Make Sense?
What didn’t they tell us?
Are the numbers consistent with each other?
Are the numbers plausible?
Are the numbers too good to be true?
Is the arithmetic right?
Is there a hidden agenda?
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CHAPTER 9 EXERCISES
PART I REVIEW
PART I SUMMARY
PART I REVIEW EXERCISES
PART I PROJECTS
PART II
Graphs, Good and Bad
Data tables
Types of variables
Pie charts and bar graphs
Beware the pictogram
Change over time: Line graphs
Watch those scales!
Making good graphs
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CHAPTER 10 EXERCISES
Displaying Distributions with Graphs
Histograms
Interpreting histograms
Stemplots
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CHAPTER 11 EXERCISES
Describing Distributions with Numbers
Median and quartiles
The five-number summary and boxplots
Mean and standard deviation
Choosing numerical descriptions
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CHAPTER 12 EXERCISES
Normal Distributions
Density curves
The center and variability of a density curve
Normal distributions
The 68–95–99.7 rule
Standard scores
Percentiles of Normal distributions*
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CHAPTER 13 EXERCISES
Describing Relationships: Scatterplots and Correlation
Scatterplots
Interpreting scatterplots
Correlation
Understanding correlation
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CHAPTER 14 EXERCISES
Describing Relationships: Regression, Prediction, and Causation
Regression lines
Regression equations
Understanding prediction
Correlation and regression
The question of causation
Evidence for causation
Correlation, prediction, and big data
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CHAPTER 15 EXERCISES
The Consumer Price Index and Government Statistics
Index numbers
Fixed market basket price indexes
Using the CPI
Understanding the CPI
The place of government statistics
The question of social statistics
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CHAPTER 16 EXERCISES
PART II REVIEW
PART II SUMMARY
PART II REVIEW EXERCISES
PART II PROJECTS
PART III
Thinking about Chance
The idea of probability
The ancient history of chance
Myths about chance behavior
Personal probabilities
Probability and risk
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CHAPTER 17 EXERCISES
Probability Models
Probability models
Probability rules
Probability and odds
Probability models for sampling
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CHAPTER 18 EXERCISES
Simulation
Where do probabilities come from?
Simulation basics
Thinking about independence
More elaborate simulations
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CHAPTER 19 EXERCISES
The House Edge: Expected Values
Expected values
The law of large numbers
Thinking about expected values
Finding expected values by simulation
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CHAPTER 20 EXERCISES
PART III REVIEW
PART III SUMMARY
PART III REVIEW EXERCISES
PART III PROJECTS
Part IV
What Is a Confidence Interval?
Estimating
Estimating with confidence
Understanding confidence intervals
More on confidence intervals for a population proportion*
The sampling distribution of a sample mean*
Confidence intervals for a population mean*
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CHAPTER 21 EXERCISES
What Is a Test of Significance?
The reasoning of statistical tests of significance
Hypotheses and P-values
Statistical significance
Calculating P-values*
Tests for a population mean*
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CHAPTER 22 EXERCISES
Use and Abuse of Statistical Inference
Using inference wisely
The woes of significance tests
The advantages of confidence intervals
Significance at the 5% level isn't magical
Beware of searching for significance
Inference as decision*
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CHAPTER 23 EXERCISES
Two-Way Tables and the Chi-Square Test*
Two-way tables
Inference for a two-way table
The chi-square test
Using the chi-square test
Simpson's paradox
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CHAPTER 24 EXERCISES
PART IV REVIEW
PART IV SUMMARY
PART IV REVIEW EXERCISES
PART IV PROJECTS
NOTES AND DATA SOURCES
RESOLVING THE CONTROVERSY
SOLUTIONS TO "NOW IT'S YOUR TURN" EXERCISES
INDEX
TABLES