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Page 3 Data on the safety of GMOs is from “Public and scientists’ views on science and society,” Pew Research Center report by Cary Funk and Lee Rainie, January 29, 2015, available online at www.pewinternet.org/
Page 3 The MLive.com poll is described in the article “Take our online poll: should Michigan legalize marijuana,” available online at www.mlive.com/
Page 5 Example 1 is suggested by Maxine Pfannkuch and Chris J. Wild, “Statistical thinking and statistical practice: themes gleaned from professional statisticians,” unpublished manuscript, 1998.
Page 7 Example 3: M. S. Linet et al., “Residential exposure to magnetic fields and acute lymphoblastic leukemia in children,” New England Journal of Medicine, 337 (1997), pp. 1–
Page 11 Exercise 1.1: From “In debate over legalizing marijuana, disagreement over drug’s dangers,” available online at www.people-press.org/
Page 12 The estimates of the census overcount and undercount are available online at www.census.gov/
Page 15 Exercise 1.3: This problem is based on information in the article, “Few say police forces nationally do well in treating races equally,” available online at www.people-press.org/
Page 16 Exercise 1.5: Geoffrey R. O. Durso et al., “Over-
Page 18 Exercise 1.12: Jeffrey M. Jones, “American’s support for death penalty stable,” Gallup News Service, October 23, 2014, available online at www.gallup.com/
Page 18 Exercise 1.14(c): The website for the American Community Survey is www.census.gov/
Page 19 Exercise 1.16: Valerie Strauss, “Schools waking up to teens’ unique sleep needs,” Washington Post, January 10, 2006, p. A08.
Page 19 Exercise 1.19: This problem is based on information in L. C. Tapsell et al., “Including walnuts in a low-
Page 20 Exercise 1.20: Rob Stein, “A drink a day raises women’s risk of cancer, study indicates,” Washington Post, February 25, 2009, p. A01.
Page 20 Exercise 1.21: Karen Kaplan, “Bully-
Page 21 The MLive.com poll is described in the artile “ Take our online poll: Should Michigan legalize marijuana,” available online at www.mlive.com/
Page 21 “Acadian ambulance officials, work-
Page 30 Example 5: “In U.S., percentage saying vaccines are vital dips slightly,” Gallup News Service press release by Frank Newport, March 6, 2015, available online at www.gallup.com/
Page 32 Exercise 2.4: Google uses this method for conducting online polls.
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Page 34 Exercise 2.9: The link to the article about the Los Angeles Times poll is https://poll-
Page 34 Exercise 2.10: The link to the Drudge Report poll results is www.theblaze.com/
Page 35 Exercise 2.14: “Clarification,” San Francisco Bay Times, November 15, 2005.
Page 40 The Gallup Organization, “In U.S., percentage saying vaccines are vital dips slightly,” available online at www.gallup.com.
Page 47 The Gallup Organization, “Abortion edges up as important voting issue for Americans,” available online at www.gallup.com.
Page 49 Example 6: This example comes from results posted at the website www.surveyusa.com/
Page 53 Exercise 3.6: This exercise comes from results posted at the website www.uofmhealth.org/
Page 54 Exercise 3.7: This exercise comes from results posted at the website http:/
Page 54 Exercise 3.8: News releases about unemployment can be found online at www.bls.gov.
Page 54 Exercise 3.10: The Gallup Organization, “Record-
Page 54 Exercise 3.11: This exercise comes from results posted at the website www.cdc.gov/
Page 57 Exercise 3.15: Warren McIsaac and Vivek Goel, “Is access to physician services in Ontario equitable?” Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario, October 18, 1993.
Page 57 Exercise 3.16: The Gallup Organization, “In U.S., concern about environmental threats eases,” available online at www.gallup.com.
Page 57 Exercise 3.19: The Gallup Organization, “As ACA takes effect, majority OK with personal health costs,” available online at www.gallup.com.
Page 58 Exercise 3.21: “Bush backs gay-
Page 59 Exercise 3.25: New York Times, August 21, 1989.
Page 60 Exercise 3.28: The Gallup Organization, “Americans’ support for death penalty stable,” available online at www.gallup.com.
Page 60 Exercise 3.32: See www.gallup.com/
Page 60 Exercise 3.33: The Gallup Organization, “U.S. still split on abortion: 47% pro-
Page 61 Exercise 3.38: See www.harrisinteractive.com/NewsRoom
/HarrisPolls/tabid/447/mid/1508/articleId/1018/ctl
/ReadCustom%20Default/Default.aspx.
Page 66 For more detail on the limits of memory in surveys, see N. M. Bradburn, L. J. Rips, and S. K. Shevell, “Answering autobiographical questions: the impact of memory and inference on surveys,” Science, 236 (1987), pp. 157–
Page 67 Example 3: For more on the effect of race, see Gregory Flemming and Kimberly Parker, “Race and reluctant respondents: possible consequences of non-
Page 67 For more detail on nonsampling errors, along with references, see P. E. Converse and M. W. Traugott, “Assessing the accuracy of polls and surveys,” Science, 234 (1986), pp. 1094–
Page 69 Example 4: For information about the response rates for the American Community Survey of households (there is a separate sample of group quarters), go to www.census.gov/
Page 70 Example 5: This example comes from a report “Polling when public attention is limited: different questions, different results,” at www.pewresearch.org/
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Page 71 Example 6: The questions are from a Gallup Poll, April 9–
Page 72 The quotation on weighting is from Adam Clymer and Janet Elder, “Poll finds greater confidence in Democrats,” New York Times, November 10, 1999.
Page 73 Example 7: The most recent account of the design of the CPS is the BLS Handbook of Methods, available online at www.bls.gov/
Page 76 A detailed description of the methods Gallup uses in its World Poll can be found online at www.gallup.com/consulting/worldpoll/108079/Methodological-
Page 76 For more information on web surveys, see the special issue by Public Opinion Quarterly at http:/
Page 77 Example 10: Rachel Sherman and John Hickner, “Academic physicians use placebos in clinical practice and believe in the mind-
Page 84 Exercise 4.10: The quotation is from the Gallup website, www.gallup.com/poll/Topics.aspx, is typical of Gallup polls.
Page 84 Exercise 4.11: See “Fewer young people say I do—
Page 84 Exercise 4.12: Details of the survey can be found online at www.collegeparents.org/
Page 85 Exercise 4.14: Giuliana Coccia, “An overview of non-
Page 85 Exercise 4.15: The first question is from a CBS News/New York Times poll, April 30–
Page 85 Exercise 4.16: The first question is from a CBS News/New York Times poll, December 4–
Page 86 Exercise 4.18: The questions are from a Quinnipiac University poll, April 16–
Page 87 Exercise 4.21: Janet Hook, “Views of economy brighten, WSJ/NBC poll finds,” Wall Street Journal, January 20, 2015, available online at www.wsj.com/
Page 87 Exercise 4.22: Noam Scheiber and Dalia Sussman, “Inequality troubles Americans across party lines, Times/CBS poll finds,” New York Times, June 3, 2015, available online at www.nytimes.com/
Page 88 Exercise 4.24: D. Goleman, “Pollsters enlist psychologists in quest for unbiased results,” New York Times, September 7, 1993.
Page 89 Exercise 4.32: From the online “Supplementary Material” for G. Gaskell et al., “Worlds apart? The reception of genetically modified foods in Europe and the U.S.,” Science, 285 (1999), pp. 384–
Page 91 Exercise 4.39: The first question is from an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted by the polling organizations of Peter Hart (D) and Robert Teeter (R), November 8–
Page 93 Case Study: K. B. Suttle, Meredith A. Thomsen, and Mary E. Power, “Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate,” Science, 315 (2007), pp. 640–
Page 94 Example 1: Allan H. Schulman and Randi L. Sims, “Learning in an online format versus an in-
Page 94 Example 2: Charlene Y. Senn et al., “Efficacy of a sexual assault resistance program for university women,” New England Journal of Medicine, 372 (2015), pp. 2326–
Page 96 Example 3: R. W. Summers et al., “Trichuris suis therapy in Crohn’s disease,” Gut, 54 (2005), pp. 87–
Page 98 Example 4: Samuel Charache et al., “Effects of hydroxyurea on the frequency of painful crises in sickle cell anemia,” New England Journal of Medicine, 332 (1995), pp. 1317–
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Page 102 H. Sacks, T. C. Chalmers, and H. Smith Jr., “Randomized versus historical controls for clinical trials,” American Journal of Medicine, 72 (1982), pp. 233–
Page 105 Example 6: Lucy Bowes et al., “Peer victimisation during adolescence and its impact on depression in early adulthood: prospective cohort study in the United Kingdom,” BMJ, 350 (2015), h2469.
Page 105 Example 7: Dr. Daniel B. Mark, in Associated Press, “Age, not bias, may explain differences in treatment,” New York Times, April 26, 1994. Dr. Mark was commenting on Daniel B. Mark et al., “Absence of sex bias in the referral of patients for cardiac catheterization,” New England Journal of Medicine, 330 (1994), pp. 1101–
Page 108 Exercise 5.2: Marilyn Ellis, “Attending church found factor in longer life,” USA Today, August 9, 1999.
Page 109 Exercise 5.7: E. A. Moore, “Highway to hell: exhaust is bad for your heart,” CNET News, February 9, 2010, available online at http:/
Page 109 Exercise 5.8: A. Swanson, “Study: birth month might affect health,” Columbus Dispatch, June 20, 2015.
Page 109 Exercise 5.9: R. Stein, “Weight-
Page 110 Exercise 5.11: Information about the Physicians’ Health Study is available online at http:/
Page 110 Exercise 5.12: Pam A. Mueller and Daniel M. Oppenheimer, “The pen is mightier than the keyboard: advantages of longhand over laptop note taking,” Psychological Science, 25 (2014), pp. 1159–
Page 111 Exercise 5.16: G. Kolata, “New study finds vitamins are not cancer preventers,” New York Times, July 21, 1994. For the details, look in the Journal of the American Medical Association for the same date.
Page 112 Exercise 5.18: Letter to the editor by Stan Metzenberg, Science, 286 (1999), p. 2083.
Page 112 Exercise 5.19: Misti Crane, “OSU finds Tylenol can dull emotions,” Columbus Dispatch, April 15, 2015. For the details, see Geoffrey R. O. Durso et al., “Over-
Page 112 Exercise 5.20 is based on Christopher Anderson, “Measuring what works in health care,” Science, 263 (1994), pp. 1080–
Page 113 Exercise 5.24: A. R. Paley, “Software’s benefits on tests in doubt,” Washington Post, April 5, 2007.
Page 113 Exercise 5.25: This problem is based on M. Rosenkilde et al., “Body fat loss and compensatory mechanisms in response to different doses of aerobic exercise—
Page 114 Exercise 5.29: L. E. Moses and F. Mosteller, “Safety of anesthetics,” in J. M. Tanur et al. (eds.), Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown, 3rd edition, Wadsworth, 1989, pp. 15–
Page 118 Example 1: For the study on rats, see E. Street and M. B. Carroll, “Preliminary evaluation of a new food product,” in J. M. Tanur et al. (eds.), Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown, 3rd edition, Wadsworth, 1989, pp. 161–
Page 119 Example 2: The placebo effect examples are from Sandra Blakeslee, “Placebos prove so powerful even experts are surprised,” New York Times, October 13, 1998. The “three-
Page 120 The flu trial quotation is from Kristin L. Nichol et al., “Effectiveness of live, attenuated intranasal influenza virus vaccine in healthy, working adults,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 282 (1999), pp. 137–
Page 120 Example 3: “Cancer clinical trials: barriers to African American participation,” Closing the Gap, newsletter of the Office of Minority Health, December 1997–
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Page 121 Example 4: Michael H. Davidson et al., “Weight control and risk factor reduction in obese subjects treated for 2 years with orlistat: a randomized controlled trial,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 281 (1999), pp. 235–
Page 123 Example 6: Details of the Carolina Abecedarian Project, including references to published work, can be found online at www.fpg.unc.edu/˜abc/.
Page 125 Example 8: This is a simpler version of an experiment described in Brian Wansik and Pierre Chandon, “Can ‘low-
Page 127 Example 9: “How to win the battle of the bugs,” Consumers Reports, July 2015, pp. 34–
Page 133 Exercise 6.8: David Brown, “Drug’s mystical properties confirmed,” Washington Post, July 11, 2006. Look online at www.springer.com/
Page 134 Exercise 6.10: Jeffrey S. Orringer et al., “Treatment of acne vulgaris with a pulsed laser dye,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 291 (2004), pp. 2834–
Page 134 Exercise 6.12: “A carefully scheduled high-
Page 135 Exercise 6.13: Nathan Seppa, “Blood-
Page 135 Exercise 6.15: Hypericum Depression Trial Study Group, “Effect of Hypericum perforatum (St. John’s wort) in major depressive disorder: a randomized, controlled trial,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 287 (2002), pp. 1807–
Page 136 Exercise 6.17: Lindsey Tanner, “Study says ibuprofen is best painkiller for children,” Washington Post, March 5, 2007, p. A09.
Page 136 Exercise 6.18: Donald G. McNeil Jr., “Flu shots in children can help community,” New York Times, March 10, 2010, p. A16.
Page 137 Exercise 6.19: B. Sekalska et al., “Effect of ibuprofen on the development of fat-
Page 138 Exercise 6.21: Found at www.forbes.com, January 14, 2014.
Page 138 Exercise 6.23: Alysha Fligner and Xiaoyan Deng, “The effect of font naturalness on perceived healthiness of food products,” senior thesis, The Ohio State University.
Page 139 Exercise 6.24: Sterling C. Hilton et al., “A randomized controlled experiment to assess technological innovations in the classroom on student outcomes: an overview of a clinical trial in education,” manuscript, no date. A brief report is Sterling C. Hilton and Howard B. Christensen, “Evaluating the impact of multimedia lectures on student learning and attitudes,” Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on the Teaching of Statistics, at www.stat.auckland.ac.nz.
Page 140 Exercise 6.30: Mary O. Mundinger et al., “Primary care outcomes in patients treated by nurse practitioners or physicians,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 238 (2000), pp. 59–
Page 141 Case Study: Lycia L. C. Parker, Ian S. Penton-
Page 142 Example 1: John C. Bailar III, “The real threats to the integrity of science,” Chronicle of Higher Education, April 21, 1995, pp. B1–
Page 142 This quotation can be found at the Journal of the American Medical Association website, http:/
Page 143 The quotation is from the preface to the University of Pittsburgh’s institutional review board Reference Manual for the Use of Human Subjects in Research, available online at www.irb.pitt.edu/manual/default.htm.
Page 144 Example 2: The difficulties of interpreting guidelines for informed consent and for the work of institutional review boards in medical research are a main theme of Beverly Woodward, “Challenges to human subject protections in U.S. medical research,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 282 (1999), pp. 1947–
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Page 148 Example 4: The quotation is from the Report of the Tuskegee Syphilis Study Legacy Committee, May 20, 1996. A detailed history is James H. Jones, Bad Blood: The Tuskegee Syphilis Experiment, Free Press, 1993. Another reference is Susan M. Reverby, More Than Fact and Fiction: Cultural Memory and the Tuskegee Syphilis Study, Hastings Center Report, 0093-
Page 149 The quotation from Dr. Hennekens is from an interview in the Annenberg/Corporation for Public Broadcasting video series Against All Odds: Inside Statistics.
Page 150 Example 6: The quotation is from Thomas B. Freeman et al., “Use of placebo surgery in controlled trials of a cellular-
Page 151 The quotations are from Gina Kolata and Kurt Eichenwald, “Business thrives on unproven care leaving science behind,” New York Times, October 3, 1999. Background and details about the first clinical trials appear in a National Cancer Institute press release: “Questions and answers: high-
Page 151 Exercise 7.4: Ezekial J. Emanuel, David Wendler, and Christine Grady, “What makes clinical research ethical?” Journal of the American Medical Association, 283 (2000), pp. 2701–
Page 152 Example 7: R. D. Middlemist, E. S. Knowles, and C. F. Matter, “Personal space invasions in the lavatory: suggestive evidence for arousal,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 33 (1976), pp. 541–
Page 156 Exercise 7.15: See the details on the website of the Office for Human Research Protections of the Department of Health and Human Services, www.hhs.gov/
Page 159 Exercise 7.27: Dr. C. Warren Olanow, chief of neurology, Mt. Sinai School of Medicine, quoted in Margaret Talbot, “The placebo prescription,” New York Times Magazine, January 8, 2000, pp. 34–
Page 159 Exercise 7.29: For extensive background, see Jon Cohen, “AIDS trials ethics questioned,” Science, 276 (1997), pp. 520–
Page 163 Case Study: See the EESEE story “Brain size and intelligence.” This EESEE story is based on L. Willerman, R. Schultz, J. N. Rutledge, and E. Bigler, “In vivo brain size and intelligence,” Intelligence, 15 (1991), pp. 223–
Page 164 Example 1: “Trial and error,” Economist, October 31, 1998, pp. 87–
Page 169 Example 7: Quotation from a FairTest press release dated August 31, 1999, and appearing on the organization’s web page, www.fairtest.org. Most of the other information in this example and the Statistical Controversies feature comes from Chapter 2 of the National Science Foundation report Women, Minorities, and Persons with Disabilities in Science and Engineering: 1998, NSF99-
Page 175 Example 9: The deviations of NIST time from BIPM time are from the website of the NIST Time and Frequency Division, www.nist.gov/physlab/div847/.
Page 185 Exercise 8.27: The website for the Uniform Crime Reporting Program is www.fbi.gov/
Page 186 Exercise 8.32: Recent best places for businesses and careers can be found at www.forbes.com/
Page 187 Case Study: The New York Times article discussed in the Case Study was found online at www.nytimes.com/
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Page 188 Example 1: R. J. Newan, “Snow job on the slopes,” US News & World Report, December 17, 1994, pp. 62–
Page 188 Example 2: Reported by Robert Niles of the Los Angeles Times, at www.nilesonline.com.
Page 188 Example 3: “The other side of ‘test optional,’ ” New York Times, July 20, 2009.
Page 188 Example 4: The “missing vans” case is based on news articles in the New York Times, April 18, 1992, and September 10, 1992.
Page 189 Example 5: Robyn Meredith, “Oops, Cadillac says, Lincoln won after all,” New York Times, May 6, 1999.
Page 190 Example 6: B. Yuncker, “The strange case of the painted mice,” Saturday Review/World, November 30, 1974, p. 53.
Page 191 Example 8: E. Marshall, “San Diego’s tough stand on research fraud,” Science, 234 (1986), pp. 534–
Page 192 Example 9: The second item is from Chance News, www.causeweb.org/
Page 192 Example 10: Darryl Nester spotted this ad.
Page 193 Example 11: Science, 192 (1976), p. 1081.
Page 193 Example 12: Historical prices of the NASDAQ composite index can be found at http:/
Page 195 Example 13: Quotation from the American Heart Association statement “Cardiovascular disease in women,” found at www.americanheart.org.
Page 195 Example 14: Edwin S. Rubenstein, “Inequality,” Forbes, November 1, 1999, pp. 158–
Page 198 Exercise 9.8: Providence (R.I.) Journal, December 24, 1999. We found the article in Chance News 9.02.
Page 199 Exercise 9.11: Fine Gardening, September/October 1989, p. 76.
Page 199 Exercise 9.13: Condé Nast Traveler magazine, June 1992.
Page 199 Exercise 9.14: Science, 189 (1975), p. 373.
Page 199 Exercise 9.15: Lafayette (Ind.) Journal and Courier, October 23, 1988.
Page 199 Exercise 9.16: This example is courtesy of Professor Steve Samuels, Purdue University.
Page 200 Exercise 9.17: Letter by L. Jarvik in the New York Times, May 4, 1993. The editorial, “Muggings in the kitchen,” appeared on April 23, 1993.
Page 200 Exercise 9.18: New York Times, April 21, 1986.
Page 200 Exercise 9.21: Found online at www.dissentmagazine.org/online.php?id=315.
Page 201 Exercise 9.24: Organic Gardening, July 1983.
Page 201 Exercise 9.25: Organic Gardening, March 1983.
Page 207 Exercise I.10: Gallup polls are described on the Gallup website, www.gallup.com. Exercise I.10 is from “Nearly half of smartphone users can’t imagine life without it,” Gallup press release dated July 13, 2015.
Page 207 Exercise I.11: Exercise I.11 is from “Americans say Caitlyn Jenner’s public transition will grow acceptance of transgender persons,” NBC News Online Survey press release dated June 9, 2015.
Page 208 Exercise I.12: Exercise I.12 is from “Johnny Carson tops list as all-
Page 208 Exercise I.16, Exercise I.17, Exercise I.18 and Exercise I.19: Paulina Salminen et al., “Antibiotic therapy vs appendectomy for treatment of uncomplicated acute appendicitis: the APPAC randomized clinical trial,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 313 (2015), pp. 2340–
Page 215 Case Study. National Endowments for the Arts, To Read or Not to Read, Research Report 47, November 2007, available online at www.nea.gov/
Page 216 Example 1: These dates were found at www.census.gov/
Page 221 Exercise 10.1: These data are available online at http:/
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Page 222 Example 5: The Dyson ad can be found at www.dyson.com/UnitedStates.aspx.
Page 223 Example 6: The unemployment rates used to create Figure 10.7 can be found at www.bls.gov/
Page 225 Exercise 10.2: These data are available online at www.fns.usda.gov/
Page 236 Exercise 10.15: These data are available online at www.indexmundi.com/
Page 236 Exercise 10.16: 2009 Statistical Abstract of the United States, Table 276.
Page 239 Exercise 10.23: F. Norris, Market Watch column, New York Times, July 15, 1992.
Page 239 Exercise 10.25: These data are from the 2010 Statistical Abstract of the United States, available online at www.census.gov/compendia/statab/.
Page 239 Exercise 10.28: The data for 1971 to 1997 are from the 1997 Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, U.S. Department of Justice, 1999. The data for 1999 are from the 2004–
Page 240 Exercise 10.29: These data are taken from www.drugabuse.gov/nationalsurvey-
Page 241 Exercise 10.30: These data are taken from www.cdc.gov/
Page 263 Exercise 11.18: These data are from the 2010 Statistical Abstract of the United States, available online at www.census.gov/compendia/statab/.
Page 263 Exercise 11.19: Consumer Reports, June 1986, pp. 366–
Page 260 Figure 11.14: The usual minimum for this lake is 350 feet in the winter months. The second mode is apparent due to a couple major drawdowns, most notably in 2003 and 2004 to make repairs to the 1.7-
Page 264 Table 11.5: Source: 2010 Statistical Abstract of the United States, www.census.gov/compendia/statab/; and Census Bureau, www.census.gov/population/www/projections/natproj.html.
Pages 267 and 284 Data on income and education are from the Census Bureau website. Tables for 2013 can be found at www.census.gov/hhes/www/cpstables/032014/perinc/pinc03_000.htm.
Page 276 The data for Figure 12.4 and 12.5 come from historical income tables that can be found on the Census Bureau website, www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/historical/household/.
Page 286 Exercise 12.11: Found online at http:/
Page 287 Exercise 12.16. These numbers are estimated from data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements. Data on the richest 5% of households is readily available in tables available online at www.census.gov/hhes/www/income/data/index.html. Data on the richest 1% are more difficult to obtain.
Pages 287 and 290 Exercises 12.17 and 12.29: Data from Consumer Reports, June 1986, pp. 366–
Page 287 Exercise 12.21: Data are from the Department of Homeland Security website. Available online at www.dhs.gov/
Pages 288 and 289 The raw data behind Exercises 12.23 and 12.27 come from College Board Online, http://professionals.collegeboard.com/data-
Page 289 Exercise 12.28: Data are from www.fueleconomy.gov.
Page 291 Exercise 12.35: Part of the larger set of data in Table 15.2. See the source note for that table.
Page 292 Exercise 12.38: Quotation is from the New York Times, May 31, 1989.
Page 294 The text message data presented in Figure 13.1 come from the American Statistical Association’s Census at School project. Data from this project can be accessed online at www.amstat.org/
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Pages 294 and 296 The body temperature data presented in Figure 13.2, 13.3, 13.4a, and 13.4b come from the article Allen L. Shoemaker, “What’s normal?—temperature, gender, and heart rate,” Journal of Statis-
Page 310 The IQ scores in Figure 13.13 were collected by Darlene Gordon, Purdue University School of Education.
Page 311 Exercise 13.18: Stephen Jay Gould, “Entropic homogeneity isn’t why no one hits .400 anymore,” Discover, August 1986, pp. 60–
Page 313 Exercise 13.26: Information on SAT scores of college-
Page 313 Exercise 13.28: Information on SAT scores of college-
Page 313 Exercise 13.30: Ulric Neisser, “Rising scores on intelligence tests,” American Scientist, September–
Pages 316 and 329 The data for Figure 14.1 and 14.9 come from the College Board website, www.collegeboard.org.
Page 318 Example 2: Data extracted from the World Bank’s website, http://devdata.worldbank.org/data-
Page 321 Example 3: M. A. Houck et al., “Allometric scaling in the earliest fossil bird, Archaeopteryx lithographica,” Science, 247 (1990), pp. 195–
Page 331 Exercise 14.12: The Florida Department of Highway and Motor Vehicles, at www.flhsmv.gov/
Page 332 Exercise 14.18: The data are available at www.ncdc.noaa.gov/
Page 333 Exercise 14.19: The homicide and suicide rates were found online at www.healthy.ohio.gov/vipp/data/county.aspx.
Page 336 Exercise 14.31: Quotation from the T. Rowe Price Report, Winter 1997, p. 4.
Page 336 Exercise 14.32: These data are for 2015 and were found at the following websites: www.statista.com/
Page 336 Exercise 14.33: These data can be found at the website of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, www.climate.gov/
Page 337 Exercise 14.34: W. L. Colville and D. P. McGill, “Effect of rate and method of planting on several plant characters and yield of irrigated corn,” Agronomy Journal, 54 (1962), pp. 235–
Page 345 Example 4: The Congressional Budget Office annual reports can be found at the Congressional Budget Office website, www.cbo.gov.
Page 349 Example 7: Laura L. Calderon et al., “Risk factors for obesity in Mexican-
Page 351 Studies mentioned in the Statistical Controversies feature are John R. Lott Jr., More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun Control Laws, University of Chicago Press, 1998; Andrés Villaveces et al., “Effect of a ban on carrying firearms on homicide rates in 2 Colombian cities,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 283 (2000), pp. 1205–
Page 352 Information about cancer statistics can be obtained from the U.S. Cancer Statistics Working Group, http://apps.nccd.cdc.gov/uscs/index.aspx.
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Page 353 For more discussion of issues surrounding big data, see Tim Harford, “Big data: are we making a big mistake?” Significance, 11 (2014), pp. 14–
Page 359 Exercise 15.15: Data estimated from graphs found at the World Health Orga-
Page 360 Exercise 15.17: Data estimated from a graph in G. D. Martinsen, E. M. Driebe, and T. G. Whitham, “Indirect interactions mediated by changing plant chemistry: beaver browsing benefits beetles,” Ecology, 79 (1998), pp. 192–
Page 361 Exercise 15.22: W. M. Lewis and M. C. Grant, “Acid precipitation in the western United States,” Science, 207 (1980), pp. 176–
Page 364 Exercise 15.33: David E. Bloom and David Canning, “The health and wealth of nations,” Science, 287 (2000), pp. 1207–
Page 364 Exercise 15.34: Quotation from a Gannett News Service article appearing in the Lafayette (Ind.) Journal and Courier, April 23, 1994.
Page 373 Example 4: The data come from the website of the U.S. Census Bureau. Go to www.census.gov/
Page 376 Information about the effects of changes in the Consumer Price Index is from Bureau of Labor Statistics, “Updated response to the recommendations of the advisory commission to study the Consumer Price Index,” June 1998. The entire December 1996 issue of the BLS Monthly Labor Review is devoted to the major revision of the CPI that became effective in January 1998. The effect of changes in the CPI is discussed by Kenneth J. Stewart and Stephen B. Reed, “CPI research series using current methods, 1978–
Page 377 The survey of government statistics offices is reported in “The good statistics guide,” Economist, September 13, 1993, p. 65.
Page 382 Exercise 16.8: The data are from the U.S. Department of Energy website, www.eia.gov/
Page 382 Exercise 16.11: The data are from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) Program website, http:/
Page 384 Exercise 16.20: The data are from the website http:/
Page 386 Exercise 16.32: Gordon M. Fisher, “Is there such a thing as an absolute poverty line over time? Evidence from the United States, Britain, Canada, and Australia on the income elasticity of the poverty line,” U.S. Census Bureau Poverty Measurement Working Papers, 1995.
Page 386 Exercise 16.33: G. J. Borjas, “The internationalization of the U.S. labor market and the wage structure,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 1, No. 1 (1995), pp. 3–
Page 395 The data plotted in Figure II.3 come from G. A. Sacher and E. F. Staffelt, “Relation of gestation time to brain weight for placental mammals: implications for the theory of vertebrate growth,” American Naturalist, 108 (1974), pp. 593–
Page 397 Exercise II.23: For the gold prices, see http://kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html.
Page 398 Exercise II.24: Antoni Basinski, “Almost never on Sunday: implications of the patterns of admission and discharge for common conditions,” Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Ontario, October 18, 1993.
Page 399 Exercise II.28: Official final election results are from the website of the Federal Election Commission, www.fec.gov.
Page 399 Exercise II.29: Correlations for 36 monthly returns ending in December 1999, reported in the Fidelity Insight newsletter for January 2000.
Page 408 Example 3: See www.cdc.gov/
Page 408 More historical detail can be found in the opening chapters of F. N. David, Games, Gods and Gambling, Courier Dover Publications, 1998. The historical information given here comes from this excellent and entertaining book.
Page 410 Example 5: T. Gilovich, R. Vallone, and A. Tversky, “The hot hand in basketball: on the misperception of random sequences,” Cognitive Psychology, 17 (1985), pp. 295–
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Page 412 Example 7: Information about the Clyde cancer cluster was found online at www.huffingtonpost.com/
Page 413 For a discussion and amusing examples, see A. E. Watkins, “The law of averages,” Chance, 8, No. 2 (1995), pp. 28–
Page 414 The quotation is from Chapter 3 of C. S. Lewis, Miracles, Macmillan Co., 1947.
Page 415 The presentation of personal probability and long-
Page 417 The 1764 essay by Thomas Bayes, “An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances,” was published in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 53(1764), pp. 370–
Page 417 Example 9: Estimated probabilities are from R. D’Agostino Jr. and R. Wilson, “Asbestos: The hazard, the risk, and public policy,” in K. R. Foster, D. E. Bernstein, and P. W. Huber (eds.), Phantom Risk: Scientific Inference and the Law, MIT Press, 1994, pp. 183–
Page 418 The quotation is from R. J. Zeckhauser and W. K. Viscusi, “Risk within reason,” Science, 248 (1990), pp. 559–
Page 423 Exercise 17.21: See T. Hill, “Random-
Page 440 Exercise 18.18: We found information about probabilities for the colors in a package of M&M’s at the website www.madehow.com/
Page 440 Exercise 18.20: Information in the exercise comes from a June 2015 Gallup poll.
Page 460 Exercise 19.20: F. N. David, Games, Gods and Gambling, Courier Dover Publications, 1998.
Page 460 Exercise 19.21: Stochastic beetles are well known in the folklore of simulation, if not in entomology. They are said to be the invention of Arthur Engle of the School Mathematics Study Group.
Page 471 For the Statistical Controversies feature, visit the website of the National Coalition against Legalized Gambling at www.ncalg.org. For the defense by the casino industry, visit the website of the American Gaming Association at www.americangaming.org. State lotteries make their case via the North American Association of State and Provincial Lotteries, www.naspl.org. The National Indian Gaming Association, www.indiangaming.org, is more assertive; click on Resources to go to the media center index, and then click on Indian Gaming Facts, for example. The report of a commission established by Congress to study the impact of gambling is at http:/
Page 474 The website for the Mega Millions lottery is www.megamillions.com.
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Page 476 Exercise 20.12: Obituary by Karen Freeman, New York Times, June 6, 1996.
Page 476 Exercise 20.13: Based on A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, “Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunction fallacy in probability judgment,” Psychological Review, 90 (1983), pp. 293–
Page 489 Project 5: You can find lots of background on similar quirks of the mind in Thomas Gilovich, How We Know What Isn’t So: The Fallibility of Reason in Everyday Life, Free Press, 1991.
Page 493 Case Study: The BRFSS survey results can be found online at www.cdc.gov/
Page 494 Example 1: The Gallup survey results about soda consumption can be found online at www.gallup.com/
Page 498 For the state of the art in confidence intervals for , see Alan Agresti and Brent Coull, “Approximate is better than ‘exact’ for interval estimation of binomial proportions,” American Statistician, 52 (1998), pp. 119–
Page 509 Example 7: Information about the NAEP test can be found online at http:/
Page 511 Exercise 21.4 is based on a survey found online at www.nhtsa.gov/nti/811841.
Page 511 Exercise 21.5 is based on a survey found online at www.tiaa-cref.org/
Page 513 Exercise 21.11: The poll can be found on the Gallup website. Go to www.gallup.com/
Page 513 Exercise 21.12: The poll can be found on the Pew Research Center website. Go to www.people-press.org/
Page 513 Exercise 21.13: The poll results can be found at www.pewinternet.org/
Page 514 Exercise 21.16: The poll results can be found at www.cbsnews.com/
Page 515 Exercise 21.21: Jeff Zeleny and Megan Thee-
Page 515 Exercise 21.22 is based on a report found at www.bizjournals.com/
Page 516 Exercise 21.29: The poll results can be found at www.greenerchoices.org/pdf/Consumer-
Page 516 Exercise 21.30: Sara J. Solnick and David Hemenway, “Complaints and disenrollment at a health maintenance organization,” Journal of Consumer Affairs, 26 (1992), pp. 90–
Page 516 Exercise 21.31: The data are from the CPS website, www.bls.gov/
Page 517 Exercise 21.34: Data provided by Darlene Gordon, Purdue University.
Page 521 Case Study: The case study is based on a survey conducted by the Higher Education Research Institute at UCLA. The 2013 survey results can be found at www.heri.ucla.edu/
Page 522 Example 1: An important historical version of this example is discussed by Sir Ronald A. Fisher, The Design of Experiments, Hafner Publishing, 1971, pp. 11–
Page 529 Statistical significance: Discussion of the origins of 0.05 as a level of significance comes from Michael Cowles and Caroline Davis, “On the origins of the .05 level of statistical significance,” American Psychologist, 37 (1982), pp. 553–
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Page 531 Example 4: The inspiration for this example comes from a report published online at www.sciencedaily.com/
Page 533 Example 5: The inspiration for this example comes from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s American Time Use Survey. Results from the 2014 survey can be found online at www.bls.gov/
Page 537 Exercise 22.4: The inspiration for this example comes from a Pew Research Center report posted in October 2013 at www.journalism.org/
Page 538 Exercise 22.10: Manisha Chandalia et al., “Beneficial effects of high dietary fiber intake in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus,” New England Journal of Medicine, 342 (2000), pp. 1392–
Page 539 Exercise 22.11: Arthur Schatzkin et al., “Lack of effect of a low-
Page 539 Exercise 22.12: Seung-
Page 539 Exercise 22.13: Fekri A. Hassan, “Radiocarbon chronology of predynastic Nagada settlements, Upper Egypt,” Current Anthropology, 25 (1984), pp. 681–
Page 539 Exercise 22.14: Sara J. Solnick and David Hemenway, “The deadweight loss of Christmas: comment,” American Economic Review, 86 (1996), pp. 1299–
Page 540 Exercise 22.15: There is some evidence that part of the reason that 39% may be an overstatement of church attendance is that the same people who go to church are likely to agree to participate in national surveys run by the National Opinion Research Center. See Robert D. Woodberry, “When surveys lie and people tell the truth: how surveys oversample church attenders,” American Sociological Review, 63 (1998), pp. 119–
Page 540 Exercise 22.18: See the website http:/
Page 540 Exercise 22.19: See the website http:/
Page 541 Exercise 22.21: Alexander Todorov et al., “Inferences of competence from faces predict election outcomes,” Science, 308 (2005), pp. 1623–
Page 543 Exercise 22.30: The information shared in this exercise comes from a Pew Research Center report posted online at www.pewinternet.org/
Page 543 Exercise 22.32: Eric Ossiander, letter to the editor, Science, 257 (1992), p. 1461.
Page 543 Exercise 22.33: N. Teed, K. L. Adrian, and R. Knoblouch, “The duration of speed reductions attributable to radar detectors,” Accident Analysis and Prevention, 25 (1991), pp. 131–
Page 545 Exercise 22.39: B. Rind and D. Strohmetz, “Effect of beliefs about future weather conditions on restaurant tipping,” Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 31 (2001), pp. 2160–
Page 545 Exercise 22.40: Lawrence K. Altman, “Studies rebut earlier report on pledges of virginity,” New York Times, June 15, 2005.
Page 547 We looked at the list of top funds at the Smart Money website, www.smartmoney.com, in November 2011. Here’s part of the abstract of a typical study (Mark Carhart, “On persistence in mutual fund performance,” Journal of Finance, 52 [1997], pp. 57–
Page 551 Example 2: Marilyn Elias, “Study: antidepressant barely better than placebo,” USA Today, July 7, 2002.
Page 555 Robert Rosenthal is quoted in B. Azar, “APA statistics task force prepares to release recommendations for public comment,” APA Monitor Online, 30 (May 1999), available online at www.apa.org/
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Page 565 Exercise 23.10: The Gallup poll results can be found online at www.gallup.com/
Page 565 Exercise 23.11: The Gallup poll results can be found online at www.gallup.com/
Page 565 Exercise 23.12: Ross M. Stolzenberg, “Educational continuation by college graduates,” American Journal of Sociology, 99 (1994), pp. 1042–
Page 567 Exercise 23.25: The Gallup poll results can be found online at www.gallup.com/
Page 571 These data were obtained online at www.purdue.edu/
Page 572 Example 1: The data were obtained at http:/
Page 574 Example 3: D. M. Barnes, “Breaking the cycle of addiction,” Science, 241 (1988), pp. 1029–
Page 581 There are many computer studies of the accuracy of critical values for . For a brief discussion and some references, see Section 3.2.5 of David S. Moore, “Tests of chi-
Page 581 Example 6: Janice E. Williams et al., “Anger proneness predicts coronary heart disease risk,” Circulation, 101 (2000), pp. 2034–
Page 585 Example 8: Data for Nationsbank are from S. A. Holmes, “All a matter of perspective,” New York Times, October 11, 1995.
Page 588 Exercise 24.4, Exercise 24.5, Exercise 24.6, Exercise 24.7 and Exercise 24.8: The data came from the Pew Social Networking Fact Sheet, obtained at www.pewinternet.org/
Page 589 Exercise 24.9: This General Social Survey exercise presents a table constructed using the search function at the GSS archive, http:/
Page 589 Exercise 24.10: K. Shamsuddin and M. Abdul Haris, “Family influence on current smoking habits among secondary school children in Kota Bharu, Kelantan,” Singapore Medical Journal, 41 (2000), pp. 167–
Page 589 Exercise 24.11: C. I. Vardavas et al., “Smoking habits of Greek preschool children’s parents,” BMC Public Health, 7, No. 112 (2007).
Page 590 Exercise 24.13: R. Shine, T. R. L. Madsen, M. J. Elphick, and P. S. Harlow, “The influence of nest temperatures and maternal brooding on hatchling phenotypes in water pythons,” Ecology, 78 (1997), pp. 1713–
Page 590 Exercise 24.14: From the Annual Review of Public Health: 2015.
Page 590 Exercise 24.15: The data are from the 2014 Digest of Education Statistics at the website of the National Center for Education Statistics, http:/
Page 591 Exercise 24.16: The data for the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) can be downloaded from the website http://ssl.isr.umich.edu/hrs/start.php.
Page 591 Exercise 24.18: From reports submitted by airlines to the Department of Transportation, found in A. Barnett, “How numbers can trick you,” Technology Review, October 1994, pp. 38–
Page 592 Exercise 24.19: I. Westbrooke, “Simpson’s paradox: an example in a New Zealand survey of jury composition,” Chance, 11 (1998), pp. 40–
Page 592 Exercise 24.20: Found online at http:/
Page 593 Exercise 24.25: Brenda C. Coleman, “Study: heart attack risk cut 74% by stress management,” Associated Press dispatch appearing in the Lafayette (Ind.) Journal and Courier, October 20, 1997.
Page 593 Exercise 24.26: David M. Blau, “The child care labor market,” Journal of Human Resources, 27 (1992), pp. 9–
Page 598 and 599 Exercises IV.1, IV.2, IV.5, and IV.10 cite results from Gallup polls found at www.gallup.com.
Page 599 Exercise IV.9: Matthew K. Wynia et al., “Physician manipulation of reimbursement rules for patients,” Journal of the American Medical Association, 283 (2000), pp. 1858–
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Page 600 Exercise IV.11: Michael F. Weeks, Richard A. Kulka, and Stephanie A. Pierson, “Optimal call scheduling for a telephone survey,” Public Opinion Quarterly, 51 (1987), pp. 540–
Page 600 Exercise IV.15: C. Kirk Hadaway, Penny Long Marler, and Mark Chaves, “What the polls don’t show: a closer look at U.S. church attendance,” American Sociological Review, 58 (1993), pp. 741–
Page 602 Exercise IV.22: Charles W. L. Hill and Phillip Phan, “CEO tenure as a determinant of CEO pay,” Academy of Management Journal, 34 (1991), pp. 707–
Page 602 Exercise IV.24: A. R. Hirsch and L. H. Johnston, “Odors and learning,” Journal of Neurological and Orthopedic Medicine and Surgery, 17 (1996), pp. 119–
Page 602 The shark data in Exercise IV.25 were provided by Chris Olsen, who found the information in scuba-
Page 603 We found the example in Exercise IV.28 from the SAT scores for college-
Page 603 Exercise IV.29: Sara J. Solnick and David Hemenway, “Complaints and disenrollment at a health maintenance organization,” Journal of Consumer Affairs, 26 (1992), pp. 90–
Page 604 Exercise IV.30: L. L. Miao, “Gastric freezing: an example of the evaluation of medical therapy by randomized clinical trials,” in J. P. Bunker, B. A. Barnes, and F. Mosteller (eds.), Costs, Risks and Benefits of Surgery, Oxford University Press, 1977, pp. 198–